• 繁

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Stronger‑Than‑Expected Q3 Collections Could Be A Game Changer For Encore Capital Group (ECPG)

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 00:44:48
    語音播報
    • In the past few days, Encore Capital Group reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share and revenue both surpassing forecasts on the back of higher-than-expected collections.
    • This outperformance has reinforced confidence in Encore’s ability to convert its large portfolio of purchased debt into cash flows more efficiently than anticipated.
    • We’ll now examine how Encore’s better-than-forecast collections and earnings shape the company’s existing investment narrative and risk-reward profile.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Encore Capital Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Encore Capital Group, you need to believe it can keep turning purchased charged off debt into steady cash flows while managing funding and regulatory pressures. The strong third quarter 2025 beat and 52 week high support the short term catalyst of better than modeled collections, but do little to change the central risk that tighter credit markets or higher borrowing costs could pressure margins.

    The recent upsizing of Encore’s share repurchase authorization to US$600 million sits alongside the earnings beat as a key development, because it amplifies the impact of stronger collections on per share metrics. For investors focused on catalysts, the combination of higher than expected cash generation and an active buyback program tightens the link between operational outperformance and shareholder value, while still leaving funding and regulatory risks firmly in view.

    However, investors should also be aware that Encore’s reliance on leveraged funding means that if credit conditions or borrowing costs shift...

    Read the full narrative on Encore Capital Group (it's free!)

    Encore Capital Group's narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $838.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 11.8% yearly revenue growth and a $927.1 million earnings increase from -$89.1 million today.

    Uncover how Encore Capital Group's forecasts yield a $60.25 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ECPG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ECPG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members offer two fair value views for Encore Capital Group, from US$60.25 up to US$120.38, underscoring how far opinions can stretch. You can weigh these against the recent earnings outperformance, which hinges on sustained elevated charge off volumes in the U.S. market, and consider what that might mean for Encore’s ability to keep converting its portfolios into cash flows over time.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Encore Capital Group - why the stock might be worth just $60.25!

    Build Your Own Encore Capital Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    Looking For Alternative Opportunities?

    Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.