Assessing Porsche (XTRA:P911) Valuation After Mixed One Year Returns And Recent Three Month Rebound

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche (XTRA:P911) shares recently caught investor attention after a period of mixed returns, with the stock showing a negative 1 year total return but a positive move over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche.

The recent 11.94% 90 day share price return suggests some momentum is rebuilding after a tougher spell for investors, although the 1 year total shareholder return of 18.25% decline shows the longer term picture is still weaker.

If you are comparing Porsche with other car makers, it could be worth widening the lens to see how auto manufacturers are pricing in growth, profitability and risk today.

So, with the share price roughly in line with recent analyst targets and only a modest intrinsic value gap implied by recent estimates, you have to ask yourself: is Porsche quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.4% Overvalued

With Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche shares at about €46.49 against a narrative fair value of roughly €44.53, the current pricing leans slightly ahead of that framework.

The analysts have a consensus price target of €47.295 for Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €64.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €37.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings path and margin rebuild need to line up for that fair value? The key moving parts sit in revenue, profit mix, and the future P/E multiple. The exact hurdles are baked into the narrative, not the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $44.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are a few pressure points worth watching, including persistent weakness in China and intense luxury EV competition that could easily knock this narrative off track.

Find out about the key risks to this Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche narrative.

Build Your Own Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Narrative

If you would rather trust your own work than any single storyline, you can stress test the assumptions, adjust the inputs and Do it your way in just a few minutes.

A great starting point for your Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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