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    A Look At Twilio (TWLO) Valuation After Piper Sandler Downgrade And Growth Concerns

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 16:28:36
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    Piper Sandler’s decision to cut Twilio (TWLO) to a Neutral rating after two years of a more positive stance, citing valuation and potential growth slowdown by 2026, has sharpened investor focus on the stock.

    See our latest analysis for Twilio.

    Recent trading reflects mixed momentum, with a 22.21% 3 month share price return and a 26.92% 1 year total shareholder return, even as the latest downgrade and debate around Twilio’s growth outlook have tempered some of the earlier enthusiasm.

    If Twilio’s move has you reassessing opportunities in software and AI, it could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks that are catching market attention right now.

    With Twilio trading around $139.38, only a small discount to the average analyst target of about $143.95 and an intrinsic value estimate that sits above the current price, you have to ask: is there still upside here, or is the market already baking in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

    With Twilio closing at $139.38 against a narrative fair value of $138.04, the story here is a market price sitting very close to that estimate and leaning heavily on specific assumptions about future profits and cash flows.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of $130.885 for Twilio based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $170.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $75.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what justifies a fair value almost on top of today’s price? The narrative leans on rising margins, faster earnings growth than revenue, and a premium future earnings multiple that is well above the wider IT sector. The key consideration is how those ingredients combine across the next few years.

    Result: Fair Value of $138.04 (ABOUT RIGHT)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on Twilio shifting more revenue to higher margin software, while avoiding customer churn as large cloud providers and AI focused rivals compete harder for the same budgets.

    Find out about the key risks to this Twilio narrative.

    Build Your Own Twilio Narrative

    If this storyline does not quite fit how you see Twilio, or you would rather work from your own data checks, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Twilio research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Twilio has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused ideas that could bring fresh angles to your portfolio.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.