Is MasTec (MTZ) Still Reasonably Priced After Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Gains?

• If you are wondering whether MasTec's recent share price puts it at a bargain or a stretch, you are in the right place to size up what that current price may mean for value.
• MasTec shares recently closed at US$236.35, with returns of 7.3% over the past week, 7.7% over the past month, 3.8% year to date and 61.4% over the past year, and 146.4% over three years and 193.5% over five years.
• These moves have kept MasTec on many investors' watchlists. They sit against a backdrop of ongoing interest in U.S. capital goods and infrastructure related names. That context matters because it can influence how investors weigh the current share price against underlying fundamentals.
• MasTec currently has a valuation score of 1 out of 6. We will walk through what different valuation methods say about that score and then finish with a framework that can help you judge whether the market price aligns with your own view of value.

MasTec scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: MasTec Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those back to today, aiming to arrive at an intrinsic value per share.

For MasTec, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $435.8 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections, all in $, suggest free cash flow of $681.6 million in 2026 and $1,155.5 million in 2030, with further years extended by Simply Wall St beyond the explicit analyst horizon.

When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $237.83 per share, compared with the recent share price of $236.35. That points to the stock trading at roughly a 0.6% discount to this DCF estimate, which is essentially in line with the modelled value.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

MasTec is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for MasTec.

Approach 2: MasTec Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like MasTec, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay today directly to the earnings the business is already generating. Investors usually expect higher growth and lower risk to support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to align with a lower, more conservative multiple.

MasTec currently trades on a P/E of 55.43x. That sits above the Construction industry average P/E of 32.48x and above the peer group average of 47.62x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for MasTec of 38.60x, which is the P/E level suggested after taking into account factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks.

This Fair Ratio aims to improve on simple peer or industry comparisons by tailoring the benchmark to MasTec itself, rather than assuming every company should trade at the same multiple as its sector. Comparing MasTec’s current P/E of 55.43x with the Fair Ratio of 38.60x suggests the shares are pricing in a richer valuation than that model implies.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MasTec Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which is Simply Wall St’s way for you to attach your own story about MasTec to the numbers, link that story to a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then see the fair value that falls out of those assumptions. All of this is available inside an easy tool on the Community page that updates automatically when new earnings, guidance or news arrives. You can compare your fair value to the current price and decide what action makes sense for you, whether that means waiting, adding or trimming. You can also see how other investors might look at the same stock very differently. For example, one MasTec Narrative on the platform ties a higher fair value of about $246.67 to expectations of revenue of about $17.2b, profit margins near 4.39% and a future P/E around 29.96x. Another Narrative could lean closer to the lower analyst earnings scenarios and attach a more cautious fair value to the same US$236.35 share price today.

Do you think there's more to the story for MasTec? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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