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華爾街日報Is Columbia Banking System (COLB) Still Attractive After Recent Multi‑Year Share Price Gains
- If you are wondering whether Columbia Banking System at US$28.99 still offers value or if most of the opportunity is already priced in, this article is designed to help you frame that question clearly.
- The stock has posted returns of 2.6% over the last 7 days, 2.9% over 30 days, 2.8% year to date, 12.6% over 1 year and 34.7% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about how much of that performance is backed by valuation support versus changing risk perceptions.
- Recent coverage of Columbia Banking System has focused on its position in the US regional banking sector and how investors are thinking about balance sheet resilience and growth opportunities in that context. These themes help explain why the share price has been active over different time frames, as markets reassess what they are willing to pay for bank earnings and assets.
- On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation checklist, Columbia Banking System scores 4 out of 6, suggesting several areas where the stock screens as potentially undervalued and a couple where it does not. Next, we will walk through the standard valuation approaches behind that score and then finish with a broader way to think about what the current price might really be offering you.
Find out why Columbia Banking System's 12.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Columbia Banking System Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model asks a simple question: are shareholders expected to earn more on their equity than the return they require, and if so, how much is that worth per share today?
For Columbia Banking System, the model starts with a Book Value of $26.04 per share and a Stable EPS estimate of $3.22 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 8 analysts. The implied Average Return on Equity is 11.24%, while the Cost of Equity is $1.99 per share. That gap creates an Excess Return of $1.23 per share, which is the core value driver in this framework.
The model also uses a Stable Book Value of $28.64 per share, based on estimates from 10 analysts, and projects those excess returns over time to arrive at an intrinsic value of about $61.87 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $28.99, this implies the stock screens as materially undervalued on this approach, with an intrinsic discount of 53.1%.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Columbia Banking System is undervalued by 53.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 877 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
Approach 2: Columbia Banking System Price vs Earnings
For a profitable bank like Columbia Banking System, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It links directly to the earnings power you see today, which is often the anchor for how the market looks at banks.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on what investors expect from here. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while lower expected growth or higher risk often line up with a lower P/E.
Columbia Banking System currently trades on a P/E of 18.12x, compared with an average of 11.87x for the Banks industry and 30.36x for its peer group. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Columbia Banking System is 18.69x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E “should” be, given factors such as the company’s earnings profile, its industry, profit margins, size and risk characteristics. Because it is tailored to the company rather than based on broad averages, it can give you a more company specific anchor than simple peer or industry comparisons.
With the current P/E of 18.12x sitting slightly below the Fair Ratio of 18.69x, the shares screen as modestly undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Columbia Banking System Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about Columbia Banking System, tied to your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, then translated into a fair value that you can compare to today’s share price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you set out what you think will drive the business, plug those views into a forecast, and instantly see a fair value that updates when fresh information such as earnings or news arrives. This allows you to quickly see whether your story still lines up with the current market price or if it is time to reconsider your position.
For example, one Columbia Banking System Narrative currently points to a fair value of about US$35.00, another sits nearer US$25.00, and the consensus view is around US$29.62. This shows how different investors can look at the same bank, use the same toolkit and still reach very different conclusions about what the shares are worth today.
Do you think there's more to the story for Columbia Banking System? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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