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    Does Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Still Anchor Non‑China Supply Chains Amid New Pricing Signals?

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 13:34:37
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    • Lynas Rare Earths recently drew renewed investor attention as markets reacted to rare-earth price signals from China and continued to focus on previously flagged operational risks at its Kalgoorlie processing facility, which could affect output at its Malaysian plant.
    • As one of the few major rare earth producers outside China, Lynas sits at the center of efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for electric vehicles, electronics, green energy and defense applications.
    • We’ll now examine how heightened sensitivity to China’s rare-earth pricing signals may influence Lynas Rare Earths’ existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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    Lynas Rare Earths Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Lynas Rare Earths, you need to believe in a long term role for non Chinese rare earth supply in electric vehicles, renewables and defense, and in Lynas maintaining its position in that chain. The recent share price move on China price signals does not appear to change the key near term catalyst, which remains Lynas’s upcoming quarterly report, or the most immediate operational risk around Kalgoorlie and potential knock on effects for Malaysian output.

    Among recent announcements, the scheduled Q2 2026 result on 21 January now takes on added weight, as the market is clearly alert to any signal on pricing and volumes. For investors watching catalysts, that update is likely to be the next formal checkpoint on how Lynas is balancing its rare earth market exposure with the operational challenges previously highlighted at Kalgoorlie.

    However, while price moves can grab attention, the operational risk at Kalgoorlie and its potential impact on Malaysian throughput is something investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Lynas Rare Earths (it's free!)

    Lynas Rare Earths' narrative projects A$1.9 billion revenue and A$732.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 50.1% yearly revenue growth and about a A$724.6 million earnings increase from A$8.0 million today.

    Uncover how Lynas Rare Earths' forecasts yield a A$15.77 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:LYC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:LYC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Lynas’s fair value between A$7.00 and A$34.56, with views spread across that full range. Against this backdrop of widely varying expectations, the sensitivity of Lynas’s story to both rare earth price signals from China and execution at Kalgoorlie underlines why it can help to compare several different views before forming your own.

    Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Lynas Rare Earths - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Lynas Rare Earths Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.