A Look At United Airlines (UAL) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Momentum

United Airlines Holdings stock: recent performance snapshot

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) has drawn fresh attention after a period of solid share price moves, with the stock up 2.3% over the past week and 12.0% over the past month.

See our latest analysis for United Airlines Holdings.

Those recent share price moves sit within a broader upswing, with a 90 day share price return of 19.8%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 16.1% and very large 5 year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been building over time.

If United’s rebound has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other names in the sector using our screen of aerospace and defense stocks.

With United trading at $117.53 against an analyst price target near $126, and an intrinsic value estimate suggesting a wider discount, the key question is whether you are seeing genuine undervaluation or a market already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 6.2% Undervalued

With United Airlines Holdings last closing at $117.53 against a narrative fair value of about $125.26, the gap raises interesting questions about embedded expectations.

Execution of the United Next fleet modernization and capacity expansion strategy, particularly upgauging to larger, more fuel efficient aircraft with more premium seats, will unlock further operational leverage, reduce per seat operating costs, and drive operating margin improvement over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue path and margin profile need to line up for that fair value to make sense? The narrative outlines assumptions about top line growth, profitability, and a higher future earnings multiple, all run through a discount rate just above 10%. Want to see exactly how those moving parts fit together in the model?

Result: Fair Value of $125.26 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the whole story can change if premium travel demand weakens or if United's debt funded fleet plans keep interest costs and financial risk elevated.

Find out about the key risks to this United Airlines Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own United Airlines Holdings Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized United thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your United Airlines Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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