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    Assessing ON Semiconductor (ON) Valuation As Volatility And AI Power Shift Keep The Stock In Focus

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 08:29:53
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    Recent attention on ON Semiconductor (ON) has been driven by heightened share volatility, softer automotive and industrial demand, and unusual options activity that has sharpened focus on its push into power management, silicon carbide, and AI hardware.

    See our latest analysis for ON Semiconductor.

    That options activity and focus on higher value segments comes after a sharp reset last year, with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 1.55%, even as the 90 day share price return of 21.38% points to momentum rebuilding from a lower base.

    If ON Semiconductor’s mix of power, silicon carbide, and AI exposure has your attention, it may be worth scanning other chip names through high growth tech and AI stocks as a next step.

    With ON Semiconductor’s shares rebounding 21.38% over 90 days but still showing a 1 year total return decline of 1.55%, is the reset already behind it, or could this be an entry point before markets fully price in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 5.2% Overvalued

    With ON Semiconductor closing at US$61.76 against a narrative fair value of US$58.70, the current price sits modestly above that framework, which is built on detailed revenue, margin and earnings assumptions extending out to 2028.

    The company's strategic investments in silicon carbide (SiC), wide bandgap technologies, and advanced power management solutions for both automotive and AI data centers position it at the forefront of key structural growth markets; as these high-value products ramp, they are expected to enhance margins and drive long-term earnings growth.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue path, margin rebuild and profit multiple are baked into that view, and how share count changes tie it together? The full narrative lays out the earnings step up, the assumed compression in the P/E ratio, and the discount rate used to pull all those numbers back to today. It is the underlying math behind the fair value, not just a headline target.

    Result: Fair Value of $58.70 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, the story could shift quickly if EV demand outside China stays weak or if ongoing manufacturing underutilization keeps margins under pressure for longer than expected.

    Find out about the key risks to this ON Semiconductor narrative.

    Build Your Own ON Semiconductor Narrative

    If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your ON Semiconductor research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.