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    A Look At EMCOR Group (EME) Valuation After A Sizable Dividend Increase

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 08:26:03
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    EMCOR Group (EME) is back on income investors’ radar after the company’s board approved a higher regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share, up from $0.25, payable on January 30, 2026.

    See our latest analysis for EMCOR Group.

    The dividend hike comes after a mixed stretch for the stock, with a 6.3% 7 day share price return and a 5.2% 30 day share price return, while the 90 day share price return shows a 5.6% decline. Even so, long term total shareholder returns remain strong, with a 39.8% 1 year total shareholder return and very large 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns, suggesting momentum has cooled recently compared to the longer run.

    If EMCOR’s move has you thinking about where else consistent execution might show up, it could be a good moment to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other under the radar ideas.

    With the share price near US$655.94, a value score of 5, an indicated 27.7% intrinsic discount, and a 15.6% gap to the average analyst target, the key question is whether this signals a genuine opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 13.5% Undervalued

    With EMCOR Group’s fair value in the most followed narrative set at US$758.50 versus a last close of US$655.94, the valuation gap stands out and sets the tone for a closer look at the assumptions behind it.

    Increasing demand for large-scale construction and retrofitting projects in sectors such as data centers, healthcare, and manufacturing (including onshoring and reshoring initiatives) is resulting in a record-high and diversified backlog (RPOs up 32% YoY, $11.9B), which is expected to support revenue growth over the next several years.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin profile, and future earnings multiple justify that valuation gap, especially with only moderate growth assumptions baked in? The narrative leans heavily on a growing backlog, disciplined capital deployment, and a premium P/E that still sits below the wider construction peer group.

    Result: Fair Value of $758.50 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this story can change quickly if labor shortages continue to pressure costs or if large, complex projects run into setbacks that affect margins and earnings visibility.

    Find out about the key risks to this EMCOR Group narrative.

    Build Your Own EMCOR Group Narrative

    If you interpret the numbers differently or prefer to work through the assumptions on your own, you can create a custom EMCOR narrative in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding EMCOR Group.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If EMCOR has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Widen your search and let a few well chosen screens surface fresh ideas worth your attention.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.