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    A Look At Constellation Brands (STZ) Valuation After Earnings Beat And Beer Segment Strength

    Simply Wall St·01/06/2026 21:16:54
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    Constellation Brands (STZ) is back in focus after its latest earnings report showed both revenue and earnings per share topping Wall Street forecasts, with beer labels like Modelo and Corona again doing the heavy lifting.

    See our latest analysis for Constellation Brands.

    At a share price of $142.51, Constellation Brands has seen a 1-day share price return of 0.95% and a 7-day share price return of 1.70%. However, the 1-year total shareholder return of 33.13% decline suggests momentum has been fading despite the latest earnings beat and recent commentary around slower growth and demand headwinds.

    If this earnings reaction has you rethinking where growth and brand power might show up next, it could be a good time to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas on your watchlist.

    With shares now 33.13% below their 1 year total return level, annual revenue growth of 0.52% and net income growth of 12.06%, the key question is whether Constellation Brands is quietly undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in any future rebound in growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 16.8% Undervalued

    Constellation Brands’ narrative fair value of US$171.22 sits above the last close of US$142.51, creating a gap for investors to weigh.

    The company plans to generate approximately US$9 billion in operating cash flow and US$6 billion in free cash flow from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028. This robust cash flow will support investment in growth initiatives, primarily the modular development of their third brewery in Veracruz and additions to existing facilities in Mexico, potentially enhancing revenue.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how steady cash generation, rising margins and a reset revenue path combine into that fair value gap? The narrative leans on detailed long range forecasts, a shifting mix across beer and Wine & Spirits, and a profit profile that looks very different from today.

    Result: Fair Value of $171.22 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you still have to weigh the risk that new tariffs and ongoing margin pressure, especially in beer, could keep revenue and earnings below the narrative’s assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this Constellation Brands narrative.

    Build Your Own Constellation Brands Narrative

    If you are not fully on board with this view or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build your own full narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Constellation Brands research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Ready to hunt for more ideas?

    If Constellation Brands is only one piece of your watchlist, now is the moment to widen the net and uncover fresh opportunities before others catch on.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.