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華爾街日報Betting Markets Eye Political Shifts In Iran, Cuba And Colombia After Venezuela Shock
The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro has reverberated far beyond Caracas, igniting a surge of speculation across global betting markets over which governments could face the next abrupt political rupture.
The operation — which U.S. officials say ended with Maduro and his wife transported to New York to face federal narco-terrorism and related charges — has become the catalyst for a broad repricing of political risk, from Havana to Tehran.
Venezuela Shock Ripples Through Global Prediction Markets
On Polymarket, more than $1 million was wagered on Tuesday alone on contracts linked to Iran's leadership.
The market titled "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran" implied an 11% probability by Jan. 31, rising to 34% by end-June 2026 and 47% by year-end.
Related contracts reflected broader regional anxiety. Bets on whether Israel would strike Iran by March 31, 2026 climbed to a nearly coin-flip probability, up roughly 22 percentage points in a day, as traders began connecting the Venezuela episode to wider escalation scenarios in the Middle East.
Venezuela's post-Maduro political trajectory has also become one of the most actively traded themes across betting markets.
A Polymarket contract priced to lead the country by the end of 2026 has attracted nearly $895,000 in volume, reflecting intense uncertainty over the succession path.
Interim President Delcy Rodríguez currently leads the market with a 44% implied probability. Opposition figures María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and Edmundo González follow at roughly 14% and 15%, respectively, while Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López is priced near 7%.
The market's attention has been reinforced by reporting that U.S. deliberations weighed "stability-first" options inside the Venezuelan establishment
Are Cuba And Colombia Next to Fall?
Trump's remarks have added fuel — and tradable "color" — around Cuba and Colombia. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said a military operation in Colombia "sounds good," while also saying Cuba looks "ready to fall."
On Monday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that Cuba "could be next to fall." He said the island's economy depends heavily on Venezuelan income and oil that may no longer arrive.
On Polymarket, the contract "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30" implied a 20% chance. That was down from 61% on Jan. 3, when news of Maduro's capture broke.
Attention also turned to Colombia after Trump floated an "Operation Colombia" while criticizing left-leaning President Gustavo Petro. Markets now imply roughly a 15% chance Petro is out by end-June. That probability rises to as high as 95% by year-end.
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