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華爾街日報Delta, United Seen Leading 2026 Airline Gains As Capacity Stays In Check: Analyst
U.S. airlines are entering 2026 with tight capacity and resilient premium demand, creating a setup where carriers with pricing power and strong cash generation are poised to pull further ahead of weaker peers.
Bank of America Securities analyst Andrew G. Didora sees a strong setup for airline stocks into 2026, highlighting disciplined capacity growth, resilient premium demand, and easier year-over-year comps following early 2025 volatility, key catalysts for investors.
Didora maintains that industry reshaping favors large network carriers with pricing power, strong loyalty programs, and robust cash flow, all critical for investor outsized returns.
Spirit Aviation Holdings, Inc.’s (OTC:FLYYQ) restructuring is a key swing factor: deeper capacity cuts would further tighten supply, presenting an upside scenario.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) is a top pick with a Buy rating and $80 price forecast up from $74. Didora highlights Delta’s leading cash generation and premium exposure, forecasting over $3 billion in free cash flow for 2026. He raises his 2026 EPS estimate to $7.30 from $7.00, driven by a widening gap between unit revenue and cost growth.
Delta is expected to set the tone for earnings on January 13, with Didora projecting first-quarter 2026 revenue growth of about 5.3% and EPS of 73 cents. He values the stock at about 6.0x 2026E EV/EBITDAR, reflecting its sector advantages.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) maintains a Buy rating with a $130 price forecast up from $120, offering investors exposure to accelerating unit revenues heading into 2026. As operational headwinds fade and demand remains robust, forecasts point to more than $2 billion in free cash flow, driven by United’s extensive network and strong customer loyalty.
While increased labor costs may pressure margins, Didora sees sustained revenue momentum offsetting this risk, supporting a 6.0x 2026E EV/EBITDAR valuation.
American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) carries a Neutral rating with a $17 price forecast, up from $15. Didora flags revenue momentum but emphasizes ongoing balance sheet issues. He anticipates unit revenue recovery in early 2026 as year-over-year comps improve and main cabin performance strengthens.
Didora highlights upside from improved Citi card economics, raising his 2026 revenue growth forecast to about 7.5%. However, higher leverage and lower margins justify a valuation discount relative to Delta and United.
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) is rated Underperform with a $37 price forecast, up from $28. Didora projects 2026 upside from bag fees, extra-legroom seating, seat assignments, and the new Chase deal. His 2026 EPS estimate rises to $3.60; however, he highlights execution risk as Southwest shifts toward a network model, which warrants a discounted valuation.
Pricing Power And Scale Set To Separate Airline Winners In 2026
Didora sees airlines entering 2026 with a strong setup: constrained supply will drive pricing power, rewarding carriers that maximize premium revenue and reinvestment.
Delta and United are positioned as structural winners given scale and balance sheet flexibility. America’s upside is capped by leverage; Southwest faces execution risk. Didora expects investors will see the greatest differentiation in pricing, cash generation, and execution as demand grows.
Price Action: At last check Tuesday, Delta Air Lines shares were up 1.63% at $72.99, United Airlines gained 2.70% to $117.99, American Airlines rose 0.69% to $15.94, and Southwest Airlines advanced 1.58% to $43.11.
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