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    Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Down 5.3% After Cautious Guidance Tempered Strong Earnings Momentum – What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·01/06/2026 15:26:31
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    • In its recent earnings update, Fair Isaac Corporation reported revenue growth of 13.6% year on year but issued cautious full-year guidance that fell short of analyst expectations and included a slight miss on annual recurring revenue estimates.
    • This softer outlook contrasts with generally strong sector conditions and comes as Fair Isaac pushes to broaden its core FICO Score franchise into AI-driven decision engines amid intensifying competition from fintechs and alternative scoring models.
    • We'll now examine how Fair Isaac's softer full-year guidance, despite sector strength, could reshape its existing investment narrative and outlook.

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    Fair Isaac Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Fair Isaac, you need to believe its FICO Score and newer AI decisioning tools stay central to how lenders assess risk, even as fintech rivals and alternative models gain ground. The recent revenue beat but softer full year guidance looks more like a modest reset than a thesis breaker, although it does put more focus on near term software growth and the risk that platform adoption stays slower than investors would like.

    Against this backdrop, Fair Isaac’s ongoing US$1.0 billion share repurchase authorization is the most relevant recent announcement, as it continues even after the weaker guidance relative to peers. While buybacks do not change the operational challenges around competition, regulation and ARR momentum, they matter for investors watching how management balances capital returns with the investment needed to keep FICO’s scores and AI decision engines at the center of lenders’ workflows.

    Yet, beneath this stable guidance reset, there is growing competitive and regulatory pressure around lender choice and alternative scores that investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Fair Isaac (it's free!)

    Fair Isaac's narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 14.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $467 million earnings increase from $632.6 million today.

    Uncover how Fair Isaac's forecasts yield a $2023 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    FICO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    FICO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Fair Isaac’s fair value anywhere between about US$957 and US$2,628 per share, with most estimates clustering between roughly US$1,125 and US$2,460. Against this wide spread of opinions, the recent softer guidance and slower platform momentum highlight how regulatory and competitive risks around FICO’s core score could influence whether the business justifies the higher end of those expectations over time.

    Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Fair Isaac - why the stock might be worth 42% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Fair Isaac Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.