Saab (OM:SAAB B) Is Up 14.0% After Major European Defence Contract Wins - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In late December 2025, Saab announced several major defence orders, including a SEK 12.30 billion contract with France for two GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft and roughly SEK 4.30 billion in Lithuanian orders for RBS 70 Bolide missiles, AT4 weapons and Carl-Gustaf ammunition, with deliveries stretching from 2027 to 2032.
• Together, these long-dated European contracts deepen Saab’s order backlog and underline how its air defence and early warning systems are becoming embedded in NATO-aligned force modernisation plans.
• We’ll now examine how France’s GlobalEye order, in particular, could influence Saab’s long-term defence backlog narrative and associated execution risks.

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Saab Investment Narrative Recap

To own Saab today, you need to believe its large, long-duration defence backlog can be turned into profitable, on-time deliveries while managing heavy dependence on government budgets and capacity expansion. The latest GlobalEye and Lithuanian orders add visibility to future revenue but do not fundamentally change the near term focus on executing existing programmes efficiently and keeping investment-driven margin pressure under control.

The French order for two GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft, worth about SEK 12.30 billion with deliveries scheduled for 2029 to 2032, is most relevant here. It reinforces Saab’s position in high-end airborne surveillance, adding to the already substantial backlog and tying directly into the key catalyst of sustained European defence demand and preference for regional suppliers.

Yet, while the backlog grows, investors should also be aware of the risk that sustained front loaded investments in capacity and advanced R&D could...

Read the full narrative on Saab (it's free!)

Saab's narrative projects SEK112.3 billion revenue and SEK9.8 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Saab's forecasts yield a SEK490.40 fair value, a 18% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community place Saab’s fair value between SEK 249.50 and SEK 611, highlighting sharply different expectations. You are seeing these views clash with a business that now relies even more on executing a growing, multi year defence backlog without letting investment driven costs erode profitability.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Saab - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Saab Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Saab research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Saab research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Saab's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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