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    Is T1 Energy’s (TE) FEOC Shift Quietly Redefining Its Domestic Manufacturing Edge?

    Simply Wall St·01/06/2026 10:27:20
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    • In recent weeks, Treaty Oak Clean Energy agreed to source at least 900MW of T1 Energy’s U.S.-built, FEOC-compliant solar modules over three years, supported by T1’s 5GW Texas plant and under-construction G2_Austin cell facility.
    • At the same time, T1 Energy moved to reduce foreign ownership and hard-wire compliance with U.S. clean energy rules, directly tying long-term customer demand to policy-aligned domestic manufacturing capacity.
    • We’ll now examine how T1 Energy’s foreign ownership limits and tax credit compliance efforts could influence its existing investment narrative.

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    T1 Energy Investment Narrative Recap

    To own T1 Energy, I think you need to believe in its ability to turn U.S. policy support and domestic manufacturing into durable customer demand, despite ongoing losses and capital needs. The Treaty Oak offtake and foreign ownership clean up both feed into the key short term catalyst of bankable demand for G2_Austin, while partially easing, but not removing, the biggest near term risk around continued eligibility for U.S. clean energy incentives.

    Among recent updates, T1 Energy’s move to amend its certificate of incorporation and cap foreign ownership looks most relevant here, because it directly targets compliance with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act thresholds. Together with the Treaty Oak agreement, that step connects tax credit eligibility, FEOC alignment, and locked in demand for the new Texas cell and module capacity in a way that matters for how investors think about financing, margins and execution risk.

    But for investors, the real concern is what happens if tax credit access tightens just as G2_Austin ramps and ...

    Read the full narrative on T1 Energy (it's free!)

    T1 Energy's narrative projects $5.0 billion revenue and $504.5 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how T1 Energy's forecasts yield a $8.90 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$0.44 to about US$25.71 per share, showing how far apart individual views on T1’s potential sit. Against that spread, the recent Treaty Oak offtake and ownership changes underline how much of the company’s future still hinges on maintaining U.S. clean energy incentives and securing long term demand for its new Texas capacity.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on T1 Energy - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own T1 Energy Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.