Huayuan Securities: Maintaining the Shenzhen International (00152) “Buy” Rating Transformation and Upgrading Project, Continuing to Deliver High Dividend Value Highlights

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that while maintaining the Shenzhen International (00152) “buy” rating, the company's South China Logistics Park transformation and upgrading project has entered a settlement period, land preparation provides increased profits, and the company's value is highlighted by the increase in dividends.

The main views of Huayuan Securities are as follows:

Incidents

Shenzhen International announced the progress of the first phase of the transformation and upgrading of the South China Logistics Park. On December 26, 2025, the second phase of the South China transformation project land retention (phase 1) (i.e. plot 02-20-02) was approved by the Longhua District Government, and work related to land supply will be carried out.

The land reserved in the second phase of the transformation of the South China Logistics Park continues to be realized. It is expected that incremental revenue will still be released in 2026-2027

In 2023, the company signed a land preparation agreement for the South China Logistics Park and received 1,058 million yuan in demolition compensation and 108,700 square meters of reserved land use rights, including 508,300 square meters of residential construction area and 88,600 square meters of office and commercial area. Referring to the 2024 land replacement tax revenue of the company's 02-20-04 plot, the bank estimates that the revenue after land replacement tax for the 02-20-02 plot (about 140,000 square meters of residential area) was about HK$2.6 billion, and about 337,500 square meters of land are still expected to be confirmed in two phases. Under the same scale estimates, there is still about HK$5.6 billion of post-tax land replacement revenue to be released.

The dividend policy is stable, and the company is expected to return to the value range under high dividends

Shenzhen International maintains a relatively stable dividend policy. The company's dividend payment rate was around 40% in 2013-2016, and the dividend payment rate increased to around 50% in 2017-2024. The total total dividend payout in 2018-2024 reached HK$11.8 billion. Based on a 50% dividend ratio, the company's dividend ratio is expected to be around 8.7%, 8.7%, and 6.7% in 25-27. Under high dividends, the company is expected to return to the value range.

Risk Alerts

The progress of logistics park projects or asset securitization has fallen short of expectations; the progress of transformation and upgrading has fallen short of expectations; highway traffic has yet to be restored.