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    Why SkyWater Technology (SKYT) Is Up 21.6% After Strong Texas-Fueled Q4 Revenue Outlook

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 19:15:55
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    • In recent days, SkyWater Technology reported strong performance from its newly acquired Texas operation and guided fourth-quarter revenue to a US$155 million–US$165 million range, ahead of its February earnings release.
    • An important angle for investors is how this Texas facility appears to be contributing meaningfully to near-term revenue visibility and operational scale.
    • We’ll now examine how the stronger-than-expected contribution from the Texas acquisition could influence SkyWater Technology’s broader investment narrative.

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    SkyWater Technology Investment Narrative Recap

    To own SkyWater Technology, you need to believe its specialty foundry model can scale profitably while absorbing the Fab 25 debt load and heavy reinvestment in multiple fabs. The Texas acquisition’s stronger-than-expected contribution improves near term revenue visibility, but does not remove the key risk that leverage, thin margins and volatile government-related demand could pressure cash flow and delay a sustained improvement in earnings quality.

    The recent inclusion of SkyWater in the S&P Semiconductors Select Industry Index is particularly relevant here, as it has helped draw fresh attention to the company just as Texas-driven guidance lifted near term expectations. Index membership can amplify both the upside from execution on the new fab and the downside if integration, margin compression and high capital spending weigh on results more than investors currently anticipate.

    Yet beneath the stronger Texas outlook, investors should be aware of how Fab 25 debt and margin pressure could...

    Read the full narrative on SkyWater Technology (it's free!)

    SkyWater Technology's narrative projects $804.6 million revenue and $113.6 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how SkyWater Technology's forecasts yield a $21.00 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SKYT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SKYT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place SkyWater’s fair value anywhere between US$2.10 and US$21.00, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those estimates against the company’s higher leverage and low expected gross margins on Fab 25, it becomes important to compare several perspectives before forming expectations about future performance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on SkyWater Technology - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own SkyWater Technology Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.