• 繁

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Assessing Fermi (FRMI) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound And DCF Implied Upside

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 18:27:09
    語音播報

    Fermi’s recent price swings and context for investors

    Fermi (FRMI) has caught investor attention after a sharp near term rebound, with the stock up 10.25% over the past day and 17.29% over the past week, despite weaker recent month and past 3 months returns.

    See our latest analysis for Fermi.

    While the recent 1-day and 7-day share price returns have been strong, the 30-day and 90-day share price returns are weaker. This points to short term momentum improving after a difficult few months. Recent moves suggest investors are rapidly reassessing Fermi’s growth potential and risk profile as the business builds out its AI focused energy and data center plans, although longer term performance data and a clearer financial track record are still limited.

    If Fermi’s swings have caught your eye and you are curious about other AI driven names, this could be a good moment to check out high growth tech and AI stocks.

    With Fermi trading at $8.82 against an analyst price target of $29.00, the stock is currently described as having a 67.23% intrinsic discount. The key question is whether this represents a genuine opportunity or whether the market has already incorporated expectations about future growth into the current price.

    DCF valuation suggests a wide gap to Fermi’s current price

    Our DCF model points to a fair value estimate of $26.92 for Fermi, compared with the last close at $8.82, which implies a large valuation gap.

    The SWS DCF model works by projecting a company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value using a required rate of return. That gives a single estimate of what the business could be worth based purely on those projected cash flows.

    For Fermi, an early stage energy and hyperscaler development company focused on AI era data center infrastructure, that framework leans heavily on assumptions about how quickly its projects can scale and eventually generate cash. With limited historical revenue and earnings data, the output reflects a long term build out story rather than current profitability.

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    Result: DCF Fair value of $26.92 (UNDERVALUED)

    However, this story can change quickly if project timelines slip or if Fermi struggles to secure hyperscale customers for its 15 million square feet of planned capacity.

    Find out about the key risks to this Fermi narrative.

    Limited data heightens both upside and uncertainty

    Fermi screens as good value on several internal checks, including trading at 67.2% below the current SWS fair value estimate and being flagged as undervalued on the DCF model. However, almost every other metric that relies on history or forecasts is marked as “insufficient data.”

    That includes revenue trends, earnings growth, profit margins, Return on Equity forecasts, and how the stock compares with both the wider US market and the Specialized REITs industry. In short, the valuation story is built on a very thin financial record and limited analyst consensus.

    The company is also unprofitable today, with Return on Equity described as negative, and it relies entirely on higher risk external borrowing for its reported liabilities. For an early stage build out like Project Matador, that adds another layer of financial risk on top of execution risk.

    On the governance side, Fermi’s board is 80% independent, which is often seen as a positive for oversight, but both the board and management team have an average tenure of just 0.3 years. That points to a very new leadership group still in the early stages of working together.

    For you as an investor, the combination of a large quoted discount to fair value, highly volatile recent share price moves, and limited track record means that position sizing and risk tolerance are likely to matter just as much as the headline numbers.

    1 important warning sign

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Fermi for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 100+ undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Build Your Own Fermi Narrative

    If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full Fermi storyline in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Fermi research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Fermi is on your radar, do not stop there. Casting a wider net across different themes can help you spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.