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    Should Ryanair’s Robust December Traffic and Load Factors Shape a Rethink for (ISE:RYA) Investors?

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 18:13:03
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    • Ryanair Holdings plc has reported its December 2025 traffic results, with 14.5 million guests for the month and 206.5 million year to date, while maintaining load factors of 92% and 94% respectively, broadly in line with the prior year.
    • The combination of rising guest numbers and consistently high load factors points to sustained demand for Ryanair’s network and capacity deployment.
    • We will now examine how this continued growth in guest numbers shapes Ryanair’s investment narrative and future operating priorities.

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    What Is Ryanair Holdings' Investment Narrative?

    To own Ryanair, you really have to believe in its ability to keep filling a growing fleet at attractive economics while running a tight cost base. The December 2025 traffic print, with guests already above the company’s FY26 guidance of 206 million, underlines that demand has so far met or exceeded its capacity plans, but it does not materially shift the near term investment story on its own. The key catalysts still sit around capacity additions, pricing discipline, and how effectively management uses strong free cash flow for dividends and the sizeable €750 million buyback. On the risk side, the mix of an “expensive vs global peers” valuation and an unstable dividend track record has not gone away, even with solid recent traffic.

    However, investors should not ignore how rising traffic interacts with costs and capital returns. Ryanair Holdings' shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 15%. Uncover the fair value now.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ISE:RYA Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Jan 2026
    ISE:RYA Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Jan 2026

    Nine Simply Wall St Community fair values for Ryanair span about €25 to almost €40 per share, showing how far apart private views can be. Against that spread, recent traffic outperformance and the still‑elevated global airline valuation gap keep the focus squarely on whether current profitability and buybacks remain sustainable. Readers should weigh these contrasting perspectives before deciding how much optimism is already in the price.

    Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Ryanair Holdings - why the stock might be worth 15% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Ryanair Holdings Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.