A Look At Blue Bird (BLBD) Valuation As Longtime Leader Phil Horlock Exits The Board

Why Phil Horlock’s board exit matters for Blue Bird

Phil Horlock’s immediate resignation from Blue Bird (BLBD) on December 24, 2025, ends a long leadership chapter and puts a fresh spotlight on how investors think about the company’s governance and long term direction.

With Horlock no longer on the Board, you are effectively assessing Blue Bird without one of the key figures who helped steer the business for more than a decade. His long tenure as President & CEO, followed by a mentoring role to the current leadership team, made him an important reference point for many shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Blue Bird.

Horlock’s exit comes after a softer patch in the shares, with a 7 day share price return of a 6.65% decline and a 90 day share price return of a 12.37% decline. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return sits at a very large gain of around 24x, suggesting long term holders have still seen strong value creation while shorter term momentum has cooled.

If leadership changes at Blue Bird have you thinking about where else growth and ownership incentives might line up, now could be a useful time to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the shares having eased in recent months but still showing a strong multiyear total return, and with the stock trading below both analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates, the question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 26.7% Undervalued

With Blue Bird’s fair value in the most followed narrative set at US$63.75 versus a last close of US$46.76, the gap between story and price is clear.

Advances in Blue Bird's operational efficiency including automation and lean manufacturing investments, as well as the construction of a new plant, are anticipated to improve cost structures and drive sustainable margin improvement and expanded net earnings over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue lift, margin profile and earnings power this narrative is assuming, and how that ties into a discount rate just above 8%? The blueprint behind that US$63.75 fair value leans heavily on gradual top line growth, firmer margins and a lower future P/E than the wider machinery space. The full narrative breaks down how those pieces are expected to fit together over the next few years, and what that could imply for Blue Bird if the assumptions hold.

Result: Fair Value of $63.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on continued government clean bus funding and stable public budgets, so any policy pullback or funding squeeze could quickly weaken that upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Bird narrative.

Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Blue Bird view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Blue Bird research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Blue Bird has sharpened your thinking, do not stop there. Widen your watchlist now so you are not looking back at missed opportunities later.

• Target potential mispricing by scanning these 870 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more attractive entry points based on their cash flow profiles and fundamentals.
• Capture early growth stories by checking out these 3564 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger balance sheets and financial quality than many investors expect at this size.
• Position yourself for sector trends by reviewing these 29 healthcare AI stocks that sit at the intersection of medicine, data and automation.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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