China Merchants Securities's 2026 Home Appliance Industry Strategy: Domestic Demand Renews Overseas Technology Growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the main factors that the home appliance industry lost in the market in 2025 were due to multiple factors resonating with growth style preferences, declining incentives for domestic sales and subsidies, and Trump's tariff disturbances overseas. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand for home appliances suggests a high dividend value leader+difficult barbell strategy, and export sales are optimistic about the direction of technology going overseas+export chain+AI end side application.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

The home appliance industry will outperform the market in 2025

As of December 30, the home appliance sector achieved a positive return of 9% for the whole year, ranking 22nd in the industry. The bank concluded that the main factors were due to multiple factors such as growth style preferences (increased share of TMT transactions), declining domestic sales and subsidies (shortage of subsidy funds in some regions after 618 in 2025), and overseas Trump tariff disturbances (passive withdrawal of the US and Europe).

Domestic sales: 2026 trade-in countries' supplementary period, recommending high dividend value leaders+difficult barbell reversal strategies

A meeting of the Ministry of Finance was held on December 28 to clarify that funds will continue to be arranged to support the trade-in of consumer goods in 2026, and to adjust and optimize the scope and standards of subsidies. Reviewing the 300 billion national subsidy in 2025, the bank expects 100 billion yuan in automobile subsidies, 80 billion yuan for home appliances, 70 billion yuan for kitchen and bathroom, 10 billion yuan for two-wheelers, and 30 billion for 3C digital vehicles. According to Lotu Technology, the national subsidy fund may remain at 250-300 billion yuan in 2026. The six basic categories of household appliances will continue to be subsidized, and AI glasses will be added to 3C products, and the products are mainly first-class energy efficiency.

Export sales: optimistic about the direction of technology going overseas+export chain+AI end side application

Domestic benchmark companies are building world-class brand influence on a global scale in the fields of 3C consumption/consumer robots/portable energy storage/3D printing with supply chain advantages, engineer dividends, and technological innovation. The bank is optimistic about technology going overseas, tool export chains, and hardware innovation industry opportunities for AI end side applications. In 2026, the new national standard switch for power banks, the explosion of optical storage on European balconies, and the reversal of real estate and inventory cycles due to interest rate cuts in North America, AI end-side applications continue to drive the wave of hardware innovation in glasses/headphones/3D printing.

Investment advice

1) Value leader, Baidian focuses on recommending Midea Group/Haier Smart Home, focusing on Gree Electrics/Oaks Electrics/Hisense Home Appliances/TCL Smart Home; Black Electric focuses on recommending TCL Electronics/Hisense Video; 2) Difficulty reversal, projection focuses on Jimi Technology, focusing on domestic projection supply side clearing+vehicle loss reduction+overseas sailing opportunities. Two-wheelers focus on Company 9, focusing on the company's electric motorcycle strategy+industry's new national standard switching and reshuffle opportunities. 3) Technology goes overseas, focusing on recommending Anfu Technology (Telecom) /Anke Innovation (Electronics) /Greenlink Technology (Electronics), 3D printing recommends Huina Technology, consumer robots recommend Stone Technology/Covos, and the European Double Opposition Survey on lawnmower robots brings opportunities for the industry to clear its head. 4) The tool export chain focuses on recommending Superstar Technology/Quanfeng Holdings (machinery), which is optimistic that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, promote the resonance of the North American real estate cycle+inventory replenishment cycle+consumption cycle, and drive demand for downstream tools. 5) AI end-side applications, focus on the implementation of hardware such as AI glasses, focus on recommending Guangfeng Technology, and focus on Biyi Co., Ltd.

Risk warning: Demand for trade-in falls short of expectations, rising costs of upstream raw materials, sharp appreciation of RMB, export trade friction.