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To own CIBC, you need to believe its diversified Canadian and U.S. franchise, digital scale, and consistent earnings can offset housing, regulatory, and competition pressures. The recent cluster of fixed-rate, callable senior and junior unsecured notes does not materially alter the near term earnings catalyst of steady profit growth and dividend capacity, nor the key risk that a weaker Canadian housing market and higher credit losses could pressure margins and returns.
The 4.15% senior unsubordinated unsecured Eurobond due January 8, 2029, priced at par with a small discount, is especially relevant. It reinforces CIBC’s access to global wholesale funding and slightly lengthens its liability profile, which intersects with the current catalyst of earnings stability and capital flexibility, without fundamentally changing the core risk that elevated Canadian mortgage exposure could hurt results if credit quality deteriorates.
But investors also need to be aware that if Canadian housing weakens materially, higher 90 plus day delinquencies and write offs could...
Read the full narrative on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (it's free!)
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's narrative projects CA$29.7 billion revenue and CA$8.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.5% yearly revenue growth and about a CA$1.0 billion earnings increase from CA$7.8 billion today.
Uncover how Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's forecasts yield a CA$124.88 fair value, in line with its current price.
Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate CIBC’s fair value between CA$94.57 and CA$182.34, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. You should weigh these against the housing related credit risk and evolving funding profile when thinking about how CIBC’s performance might respond to different economic conditions.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce - why the stock might be worth as much as 44% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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