Assessing USA Rare Earth (USAR) Valuation After Sharp Short Term Share Price Rebound

USA Rare Earth (USAR) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading, with the share price at $14.15 and short term returns mixed, including a 19% gain over the past day and a negative move over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for USA Rare Earth.

The 1 day share price return of 18.91% and 7 day share price return of 11.42% come after a 30 day share price return decline of 17.83% and a 90 day share price return decline of 49.95%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 10.03% points to momentum that has recently faded.

If USAR has caught your eye, it can help to widen the lens and compare it with other materials focused names or even fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to see what else stands out right now.

With US$0 in revenue, a reported net loss and a share price trading at a steep discount to the analyst price target, is USAR misunderstood value, or is the market already factoring in future growth hopes?

DCF valuation suggests a wide gap to fair value

On Simply Wall St's DCF model, USA Rare Earth's estimated fair value sits at US$66.28 compared with the last close of US$14.15, implying a large gap. The model projects future cash flows for the business and discounts them back to today, aiming to estimate what those future streams could be worth in today's dollars.

That type of approach can be especially relevant for a pre revenue, loss making miner like USAR, where traditional earnings based multiples are harder to use. In this case, the company currently reports US$0 in revenue, a net loss of US$285.381 million and negative shareholder equity, so a cash flow based framework can help investors think beyond near term accounting figures.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Result: DCF Fair value of $66.28 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are clear pressure points, including the current net loss of US$285.381 million and negative shareholder equity, that could challenge any argument that the stock is undervalued.

Find out about the key risks to this USA Rare Earth narrative.

Build Your Own USA Rare Earth Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to weigh the data on your own terms, you can build a complete USA Rare Earth view in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your USA Rare Earth research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If USAR is on your radar, do not stop there. Widening your search with focused stock ideas can help you spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

• Target potential mispricings by reviewing these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows built on cash flow focused fundamentals.
• Explore major tech themes by scanning these 25 AI penny stocks that tie artificial intelligence to real business models.
• Emphasize income focus by checking out these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% with yields above 3%.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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