Market analysts believe that the US attack on Venezuela, compounded by recent frequent international geopolitical events, will drive increased volatility in the crude oil market. Regarding the future market, economist Pan Helin said, “It will push up oil prices in the short term and lower oil prices in the long term, because the entry of US oil capital will increase the future production capacity of Venezuelan oil exports.” Guojin Securities's petrochemical team believes that the current crude oil price is still in a game of geographical conflict and the contradiction between excessive supply and demand, and that the main support comes from geographical factors. The rise in crude oil prices caused by the geopolitical conflict will be temporary, and will further increase the pressure on crude oil surpluses in the medium term. If the conflict in Venezuela ends, production in Venezuela may recover to more than 1.1 million b/day. Everbright Futures believes that although the rate of accumulation of global onshore and water inventories has recently slowed, absolute inventories are still high, maintaining the judgment that supply and demand pressure was high in the first quarter of 2026. Affected by geographical events, the opening of energy and chemical products in the domestic market may fluctuate greatly after the holiday season is over.

Market analysts believe that the US attack on Venezuela, compounded by recent frequent international geopolitical events, will drive increased volatility in the crude oil market. Regarding the future market, economist Pan Helin said, “It will push up oil prices in the short term and lower oil prices in the long term, because the entry of US oil capital will increase the future production capacity of Venezuelan oil exports.” Guojin Securities's petrochemical team believes that the current crude oil price is still in a game of geographical conflict and the contradiction between excessive supply and demand, and that the main support comes from geographical factors. The rise in crude oil prices caused by the geopolitical conflict will be temporary, and will further increase the pressure on crude oil surpluses in the medium term. If the conflict in Venezuela ends, production in Venezuela may recover to more than 1.1 million b/day. Everbright Futures believes that although the rate of accumulation of global onshore and water inventories has recently slowed, absolute inventories are still high, maintaining the judgment that supply and demand pressure was high in the first quarter of 2026. Affected by geographical events, the opening of energy and chemical products in the domestic market may fluctuate greatly after the holiday season is over.