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華爾街日報Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP To Surge 20% In January? Unlikely, Polymarket Says
Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just a 31% chance to hit $100,000 in January, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) sits at 8% for $4,000 and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) at 14% for $2.40—signaling traders expect volatility without breakouts.
Bitcoin: Stuck In A $5,000-$15,000 Range
Bitcoin conviction is strongest near current levels and deteriorates rapidly above key thresholds.
Upside probabilities:
- $90,000: 99%
- $95,000: 60%
- $100,000: 31%
- $105,000: 14%
- $110,000+: single-digit odds
The steep decay above $95,000 signals traders don’t expect buyers to absorb supply at higher levels.
Downside probabilities:
- $85,000: 61%
- $80,000: 26%
- $75,000: 12%
Taken together, Polymarket traders are pricing a $5,000–$15,000 trading band, not a directional push as the market expects turbulence without escape velocity.
Ethereum: Range-Bound, No Acceleration
Ethereum’s Polymarket ladder mirrors Bitcoin’s restrained outlook, with highest conviction clustered around mid-range prices.
Polymarket assigns 76% odds to ETH holding above $3,200, but only 27% for $3,600 and just 8% for $4,000.
Downside probabilities remain material, with $2,800 at 57% and $2,600 at 31%, reinforcing expectations of consolidation rather than acceleration.
The distribution implies Ethereum will remain range-bound, with neither bulls nor bears displaying urgency.
XRP: Narrow Path, No Breakout
XRP traders are even more conservative, pricing stability over volatility.
Markets price a 76% chance of holding above $1.80 and $2.00, but only 14% odds for $2.40 and single-digit probabilities beyond $2.60.
January 15 MSCI Ruling And CLARITY Act: Catalysts That May Not Matter
Jan. 15 looms as the MSCI decision date on excluding companies with 50%+ digital asset holdings—directly targeting Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) and its 672,497 BTC.
Polymarket traders price MSTR delisting at 75% probability, with JPMorgan estimating $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion in forced outflows from passive index funds.
Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act enters Senate markup this month, with White House crypto czar David Sacks calling passage likely in Q1 to divide SEC and CFTC oversight.
However, prediction markets aren’t pricing upside on regulatory hope—they’re waiting for proof it matters.
Additionally, Texas holds $5 million in Bitcoin ETF exposure with plans for another $5 million direct purchase, while Arizona and New Hampshire passed similar bills.
Still, those are breadcrumbs, not the institutional wave bulls expected.
What Happens Next
Longer-term Polymarket contracts show delayed optimism:
- New Bitcoin all-time high by March 31: 9%
- By June 30: 20%
- By December 31: 34%
Another contract reinforces short-term caution: Bitcoin hits $80,000 before $150,000 is at 83% probability.
BTC Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is roughly 12% up from the December low near $80,000, but the broader structure still looks heavy.
Price is capped below the falling 20 and 50-day EMAs, keeping short-term momentum tilted bearish.
The Supertrend remains firmly negative, signaling rallies are corrective rather than impulsive.
The descending trendline from October continues to act as dynamic resistance near $91,500–$92,000.
As long as BTC stays below that zone, downside risk toward $85,000 remains active.
A daily close above $92,000 would be the first signal that sellers are losing control.