What Eldeco Housing and Industries Limited's (NSE:ELDEHSG) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Eldeco Housing and Industries Limited (NSE:ELDEHSG) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 13% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, Eldeco Housing and Industries' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 63.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 25x and even P/E's below 14x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Eldeco Housing and Industries over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Eldeco Housing and Industries

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Eldeco Housing and Industries will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Eldeco Housing and Industries' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 54%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 69% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Eldeco Housing and Industries is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Eldeco Housing and Industries' P/E

Shares in Eldeco Housing and Industries have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Eldeco Housing and Industries currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Eldeco Housing and Industries (of which 2 are potentially serious!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.