Hualong Securities: The non-ferrous industry has a strong desire to increase capital, and Shanghai Copper continues to reach record highs

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hualong Securities released a research report saying that the US economy is performing well and expectations are optimistic. Domestic demand for copper is resilient in 2026, the mismatch between copper supply and demand is shifting from expectations to reality, and market transactions are hot and the desire to go long is strong. However, as US copper surged and Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan mark and continued to reach record highs, we should pay attention to the risk of short-term fluctuations in copper prices. Maintain industry recommendation ratings.

The main views of Hualong Securities are as follows:

Incidents

On December 26, prices of major metals continued to rise, with gold, silver, copper, etc. surging. COMEX copper rose 4.96% to 58,515 US dollars/pound, and Shanghai copper rose 3.33% to 101.38 million yuan/ton.

Under various favorable factors, there is a strong desire to increase capital, and Shanghai Copper continues to reach record highs

Currently, the scarcity of the mining side and resource nationalism form the basic picture of the copper supply side. Supply chain rift and reconstruction are intensifying the shortage, and the distribution of global copper stocks is extremely uneven. As major economies gradually recover steadily, the mismatch between supply and demand may gradually shift from expectations to reality. Against this background, the market is strongly willing to go long in the short term, driving up the prices of metals such as copper. On December 26, US Copper rose 4.96%, and Shanghai Copper rose 3.33% to 101.38 million yuan/ton, breaking through the 100,000 yuan mark and continuing to reach record highs.

Moderate and optimistic economic growth in 2026 supports the upward trend in copper prices. Pay attention to the risk of copper price fluctuations in the short term

The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early December also expressed optimism about the 2026 economy and raised the September economic growth forecast. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1% to 2.5% in 2026; according to the 2025 Asian Copper Week forecast, China's copper demand will remain resilient in 2026. The bank believes that good economic expectations will help industrial metals demand to grow and fundamentals continue to pick up, so it is optimistic that the copper price center will continue to rise in 2026. On the other hand, due to the good performance of the US economy, concerns about inflation have increased, which in turn may affect expectations of the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cuts, which will have an impact on copper prices. In the short term, before the latest economic data is released, the popularity of market transactions is high, which may push copper prices up further, but since the economy is still in the recovery cycle, we need to be wary of the risk of high fluctuations in copper prices.

Investment suggestions: It is recommended to focus on industrial metal leaders Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous, Yunnan Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Jin Chengxin.

Risk warning: There are twists and turns in the recovery of the US economy; risk of changes in the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; delays in domestic policy effects; geopolitical risks; risk of high fluctuations in copper prices; risk of data citation.