Changes in Hong Kong stocks | MGM China (02282) fell more than 3%, and Lyon lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast and target price

The Zhitong Finance App learned that MGM China (02282) fell more than 3%, and the stock fell more than 17% yesterday. As of press release, it decreased by 3.33% to HK$12.48, with a turnover of HK$118 million.

According to the news, Lyon Research Institute said that starting in 2026, MGM China will raise the license fee ratio to its parent company MGM International to 3.5%, which is higher than Wynn Macau's 3% and Sands China's 1.5%. Although the bank believes that the relevant measures will not affect MGM China's property EBITDA, it still lowered its 2026 and 27 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 6.3 to 6.7%. At the same time, the bank lowered MGM China's target price from HK$22.6 to HK$20.9, maintaining a “outperforming the market” rating.

Damo, on the other hand, expects MGM China's brand usage fee to reach HK$1.2 billion in 2026, a significant increase from HK$600 million in 2025. The report predicts that MGM China's corporate EBITDA in 2026 will drop 7% from the previous forecast, down 5% year on year, and the EBITDA profit margin will narrow by 220 basis points. Brand royalties will rise to 15.2% of corporate EBITDA.