Open Source Securities: Increase research on nuclear fusion technology and be optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the sector

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that R&D and construction of controlled nuclear fusion devices is progressing steadily, that BEST, Spark 1, Xianzue Concentration, and Circulation 4 projects are expected to start one after another, and orders for core components are expected to continue to be released; TMTG's merger and acquisition of TAE to build the world's first commercial fusion listed company is expected to boost FRC sector sentiment; Helion once announced that power generation verification will be achieved within 2025. If the viability of the FRC technology route project is verified, the relevant domestic startup projects are expected to advance at an accelerated pace; the field of nuclear fusion energy; The bank is optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the sector, and suggests focusing on core components such as magnets, hosts, and power supplies.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Sector review: All segments rose, individual stocks rose more and fell less

Under the controlled nuclear fusion sector this week (20251222-20251226), individual stocks rose more and less. Specifically, Yongding shares (+28.1%), CNNC (+23.7%), and Parker New Materials (+16.7%) had the highest gains this week; Chenguang Healthcare (-4.5%), AGCO Cyber (-4.5%), and Guoli Electronics (-3.2%) had the highest declines. In December, Yongding Co., Ltd. and Yeti Group had a cumulative increase of more than 50%, a cumulative increase of more than 40% for Parker New Materials, and a cumulative increase of more than 20% for Sichuang Electronics, CNNC, Macro Technology, and Aerospace Chenguang. Looking at the segment segment, all segments under the controllable nuclear fusion sector rose this week, with magnets (+11.1%) leading the increase.

Domestic news: The Development and Reform Commission issued a document to speed up the construction of a modern infrastructure system, and BEST orders continue to be released

On December 25, the Infrastructure Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission published the article “Accelerating the Construction of a Modern Infrastructure System”, which proposes technical research on increasing long-term energy storage, green electricity to hydroammonia alcohol, and nuclear fusion. Recently, the Plasma Institute and Fusion New Energy published/updated a number of purchases. Core components such as tritium plants and low temperature systems that were tendered earlier have been opened one after another and the winning of the bid has been announced. The Materials Research Institute of the China Academy of Engineering Physics (formerly “Jiuyuan”) won the bid for all four plasma tritium breeding systems for a total of about 1.14 billion yuan. The Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences won pre-bid for key components of the cryogenic system (budget of 728 million yuan); consortia such as the Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences received 888.5 million yuan for the BEST installation TF magnet project; Western Superconductivity and Shanghai Superconductivity received 10 million orders.

Overseas news: US and Germany cooperate to develop 15 Hz laser drivers to help commercialize laser fusion

On December 18, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) of the United States and Germany's Fraunhofer Institute of Laser Technology officially launched an international cooperation project aimed at developing a high-energy laser system that can support the all-weather operation of fusion power plants. In December 2022, LLNL's National Ignition Device (NIF) achieved the first ignition achievement where the fusion output energy was greater than the laser input energy, and the energy gain reached 1.5 times, verifying the scientific feasibility of inertial constrained fusion (ICF); however, there is still a huge gap between engineering applications, and the key bottlenecks are ignition frequency and energy conversion efficiency. Diode-pumped solid-state lasers (DPSSLs) have technical characteristics of nanosecond pulses, high beam quality, and high electro-optical conversion efficiency, and are expected to help commercialize laser fusion.

Risk warning: commercialization progress falls short of expectations, capital investment falls short of expectations, risk of changes in technology routes.