CITIC Securities: Although the collagen registration certificate has not increased, the current industry is still in a dividend period

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that from a demand perspective, consumers have a strong understanding of collagen, and demand is strong; from a supply perspective, registration certificates for natural collagen and recombinant collagen are trending growth channels. In the short term, the total number of registration certificates is within a reasonable range. In fact, there are few products on the market, the overall price is high, and the supply does not fully meet the needs of beauty seekers. The industry is still in a dividend period, and all certified recipients can find the right ecological position; in the medium term, as registration certificates increase, brands with strong product differentiation are highly dependent on materials and underlying technology and processes; in the long run, the competitive differences brought about by the products themselves between brands will shrink, and the comprehensive strength of “product+channel+marketing” will play a greater role in the flourishing pattern.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Collagen: Consumer awareness is strong and demand is strong; although registration certificates are not fully increased, the industry is currently still in a dividend period.

Toubao Research Institute estimates that in terms of factory price, China's medical and aesthetic injection market size is about 26.8 billion yuan/ +26.4% YoY in 2024, and the market size will increase to 65.3 billion yuan in 2028, with a CAGR of +24.9% during the period; and it is estimated that the CAGR for collagen products will be +50.7% from 2024 to 2028. According to the announcements of various companies, the channel structure of the medical and aesthetic industry, and the company's business model practices, we estimate that in 2024, the total operating revenue of the top two leading companies for collagen medical and aesthetic injections at the factory price will be about 1.5 billion yuan, with a corresponding terminal size of about 5.4 billion yuan; the total size of terminals in the genuine product licensing market will be between 6 and 7 billion yuan.

Overall, the price of collagen medical and aesthetic injection products is high, and the current needs of beauty seekers have not been fully met. More registration certificates have been launched and introduced to the market. We expect to form a high (>10,000 yuan/tube), medium (4000 to 6,000 yuan/stick), and low price (500 to 2,000 yuan/stick) product echelons to meet the needs of various beauty seekers, greatly improve medical and aesthetic penetration rate; and simultaneously increase the share of collagen injections in medical and aesthetic biomaterials.

Natural collagen: 4 new registration certificates were approved in 2025. The new products revolved around multiple dimensions such as materials, indications, concentration, etc., and differentiated pricing, and the industry entered a stage of large-scale expansion.

According to the NMPA official website, 10 registration certificates from 7 companies have been approved for the current natural collagen racetrack. Since the beginning of 2025, 4 have been added: 2 Creicon Biotech, 1 Abry Biotech, and 1 Chongshan Biotech. Current registration certificate:

1) By material: the extraction source for 4 natural collagen product registration certificates is pig skin, accounting for about 40%; 5 sheets are cowhide, accounting for 50%; 1 sheet is beef Achilles tendon, accounting for 10%;

2) According to the site of indication: 6 registration certificates for natural collagen products to correct the nasolabial fold area, accounting for about 60%; 3 on the forehead, accounting for 30%; currently only 1 registration certificate on the cheeks; currently only 1 registration certificate for the nose;

3) In terms of type, it is mainly type I collagen products, with a total of 8 registration certificates, accounting for 80%; of these, 2 are type I+III, accounting for 20%;

4) From the perspective of crosslinking, there are currently 7 registration certificates for crosslinked collagen products, accounting for 70%; including 3 cross-linked registration certificates, accounting for 30%;

5) From a specification perspective, the focus is on 0.5ml and 1.0ml, of which the largest single dose is 2.5ml of CoreconBio (trade name: Keriqi Ruiyuan).

6) Wide price range: Prices range from 2,000 yuan to nearly 20,000 yuan for different specifications and products.

Industry leaders actively lay out the natural collagen field through mergers and acquisitions and agents. The original approved products were limited by production capacity, process, channels, and marketing capabilities, etc.; new products approved since 2025 are expected to break through restrictions on material origin, dosage form, process and concentration, and drive rapid release of natural collagen.

Recombinant collagen: Currently, the number of approved and actually marketable products is limited, and newly approved brands can occupy a good ecological position; there are many projects under development, but homogenization is serious, and only products with strong differentiation can win; in the long run, only enterprises with strong comprehensive “product+channel+marketing” strength, moderate diversification of business and strong synergy can grow bigger and stronger.

According to NMPA's official website, as of December 2025, there were 5 certificates for China's recombinant collagen medical and aesthetic injection products (1 Giazi Biotech, 3 Jinbo Biotech, 1 Chuangjian Medical). In terms of type, Jinbo Biotech's 3 certificate and Chuangjian Medical's 1 certificate were all type III collagen. The first certificate from Giazi Biotech was type I collagen. According to incomplete statistics from various company announcements, NMPA's official website, and MedActive's WeChat account, etc., we believe that new low-single-digit products (including Giant Biotech, Chuangjian Healthcare, Peptide Source Biology, Juyuan Biotech, etc.) may be added in 2026.

In terms of research, currently known projects mainly focus on type III, freeze-drying, solutions, and gels, and the similarity is high. However, looking forward to the future, we believe that in the future, companies will step up development efforts in terms of type (such as type XVII, type VII, etc.), amino acid sequence (full length vs. fragment), spatial structure (triple helix or multi-helix), and composite use with other biomaterials.

Accordingly, at this stage, attention should be paid to the beneficiaries of registration certificates on a first-come, first-served basis; in the future, more attention should be paid to product differentiation and innovation; in the long term, attention should be paid to the comprehensive strength of each company's products, marketing and channels.

Risk factors:

The approval policy for collagen products is strict, and industrialization falls short of expectations; the supply of collagen medical and aesthetic products is rapidly increasing, and profits in all parts of the industrial chain fall short of expectations; collagen medical and aesthetic products may encounter negative public opinion, affecting industrial development; weak economy, sluggish consumption of medical and aesthetic alternatives; technological iteration, and new collagen biomaterials divert or replace existing materials.

Investment Strategy:

Technologies and processes for natural collagen and recombinant collagen are constantly improving, and application scenarios are constantly expanding. The gradual increase in approved collagen products will make the indications richer, the price hierarchy will be more complete, and the volume and penetration rate of beauty seekers will increase. Currently, although the number of registration certificates for natural collagen and recombinant collagen products is increasing, they are far from being saturated. All companies have the opportunity to share the expansion of the industry cake, and can also find an ecological position in the medical and aesthetic market.

Recommendation: 1) Recombinant collagen freeze-dried fiber registration certificate launched, and is expected to be listed in the first half of 2026; at the same time, recombinant collagen solutions and gels are expected to be approved in 2026, or become a company with the second business growth curve; 2) Entering the natural collagen field through mergers and acquisitions, the research and clinical development and clinical development of three related medical and aesthetic devices is expected to be approved as a new force in the existing medical and aesthetic biomaterials matrix; 3) A company with strong drug development and review experience, and simultaneously lays out natural collagen and recombinant collagen through agency and self-development.