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華爾街日報Elon Musk Predicts A New Economy: No Poverty, No Hunger And Work Is Optional
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has often shared a radical vision for the future of the global economy, suggesting that humanity is on the brink of a “post-scarcity” era characterized by the end of poverty and the elimination of labor.
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In a social media post on Wednesday, he suggested that “applied intelligence” could trigger double-digit economic growth in the near term and triple-digit growth within five years.
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“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years,” he said on X.
Musk basically predicted the end of the industrial age and the beginning of an “intelligence age” defined by abundance.
“Applied Intelligence”
Musk's theory is based on the idea that AI—specifically artificial general intelligence (AGI) and autonomous robotics—is the ultimate hack for productivity.
In standard economics, growth is limited by labor and capital. However, if AI can be scaled like software and embodied in hardware (like the Optimus robot), the cost of labor collapses toward the cost of electricity.
- Near-term (12-18 months): Double-digit growth (10%+) would be unprecedented for a developed economy like the U.S., which typically grows at 2-3%. This rate and timeframe suggests Musk expects immediate, massive efficiency gains from AI integration.
- Long-term (~5 years): Triple-digit growth (100%+) implies a doubling of the economy annually. This is mathematically transformative, suggesting a world where goods and services are produced so rapidly and cheaply that the GDP metric itself might become obsolete.
Skepticism Vs. Vision
Critics argue that Musk's proposed timelines ignore realistic physical and regulatory hurdles.
Real-world economic growth requires energy infrastructure, raw materials and global supply chains, none of which can scale at the speed of code.
Even if intelligence is infinite, the lithium for batteries and the copper for power grids are not. Other inventions that transformed society, like steam or electricity, took decades to move the needle on national GDP.
However, if Musk is even partially correct, the primary challenge for society will shift from “how do we create wealth?” to “how do we distribute it?” in an era where human labor is no longer the primary driver of value.
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