Cathay Pacific Haitong: Maintaining the pot circle (02517) and increasing the rating target price of HK$4.47

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report stating that the 2025-2027 revenue forecast is 76.12/88.32/10175 billion yuan (RMB, same below), respectively, and the growth rates are 18%/16%/15%, respectively. The company's 2025-2027 core operating profit is 4.48/5.53/675 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 44%/23%/22% respectively; 2025-2027 net profit to mother is 4.35/5.37/655 million yuan, respectively. %/ 23%/22% Referring to the valuations of comparable companies in the same industry, the company was given a core operating profit of 20xPE in 2026, with a target market value of HK$12.3 billion and a target price of HK$4.47 (based on HK$1 = RMB 0.90), maintaining an increase in holdings rating.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Popular package+membership operation, restart growth after the sprout plan

① Hot Meal: In late May 2024, the company launched the “99 yuan Mao Dao Free Hot Pot Course”, which was very popular with consumers. The total sales of this package exceeded RMB 500 million in 2024. In 2025, we will continue to launch a variety of cost-effective packages, enhance exposure through a multi-level Douyin account matrix, and achieve high sales growth.

② Member operation: Bocircle's membership strategy has evolved from traffic thinking to user asset management. On the one hand, it continues to promote new members, combining well-known TV commercials, offline community advertisements, and social e-commerce platforms to reach consumers; at the same time, increase member stickiness through improving membership plans. In November 2025, the number of registered members of the pot ring exceeded 60 million.

The township market has the potential to open stores, and the expansion of categories and time periods enhances store efficiency

① Opening a store: Cookware upgrades new township stores to better match consumer demand in the sinking market in terms of products and displays. The profit model for township stores is relatively good. In the future, as the supply chain is strengthened, it is expected that the sinking market will show better product cost performance.

② Store efficiency: In terms of category expansion, the company gradually lays out categories such as Western food, drinks, ice products, etc., covering the full scenario of three meals a day. In terms of time frame expansion, the company launched a 24-hour unmanned retail model, which effectively enhanced the store's ability to generate revenue.

Explore new Wokuhan Fryer and Wokuwan Camping store types to enhance user stickiness and brand penetration through scene extension

On January 6, 2026, “Hot Pot Cooker” will test the first store. Using an intelligent frying machine as the core carrier, combining the core advantages of the pot ring in the field of compound seasoning and food supply chain, it strives to provide ordinary people with ready-made Chinese food with both efficiency and taste in the community scene. “Pot Ring Camping” provides a one-stop solution for outdoor dining. The expansion of new scenarios has enhanced user stickiness and brand penetration, and brought growth momentum to the company.

Risk warning: Store opening falls short of expectations, franchisee management risk, industry competition intensifies.