CITIC Securities pointed out that compared to the operating range of 1.6%-1.9% of China's 10-year treasury bonds in 2025, we judge that the yield center may shift by 10 bps in 2026, while maintaining a fluctuation space of around 30 bps. Judging from the pace of operation, interest rates may show “two-stage” characteristics: from the beginning of the year to the first half of the year, the implementation of interest rate cuts before the implementation of interest rate cuts is expected to drive interest rates downward; after the middle of the year, as the recovery in inflation supports the nominal growth rate, as localized debt gradually comes to an end and credit expansion conditions improve, there is phased upward pressure on interest rates.

CITIC Securities pointed out that compared to the operating range of 1.6%-1.9% of China's 10-year treasury bonds in 2025, we judge that the yield center may shift by 10 bps in 2026, while maintaining a fluctuation space of around 30 bps. Judging from the pace of operation, interest rates may show “two-stage” characteristics: from the beginning of the year to the first half of the year, the implementation of interest rate cuts before the implementation of interest rate cuts is expected to drive interest rates downward; after the middle of the year, as the recovery in inflation supports the nominal growth rate, as localized debt gradually comes to an end and credit expansion conditions improve, there is phased upward pressure on interest rates.