Guojin Securities's 2026 Medical Device Industry Strategy: Focus on the two lines of going overseas and innovating, and focus on targets with strong certainty to accelerate overseas expansion

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the 2026 sector investment strategy will focus on the two lines of going overseas and innovating, focusing on high-quality equipment companies with strong certainty in accelerating overseas expansion, leading product innovation and development capabilities, and where price pressure in the domestic market has gradually been clarified. Recommended attention: 1) Nanwei Medicine (688029.SH), a leading digestive endoscopic consumables leader in mature overseas market expansion and gradually bottoming out of domestic procurement; 2) Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ), a leading household medical device leader with excellent domestic brand power, innovative wearable varieties, and accelerated expansion of overseas markets; 3) Hong Kong stock device company Xianjian Technology (01302), a Hong Kong stock device company that differentiates and innovates products in the field of cardiovascular intervention, etc.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Looking back at 2025: Policy support is clearly oriented, and the share of leading companies continues to increase.

In the context of health insurance control expenses, in-hospital demand in the domestic market is weak, and a large number of enterprises are still in the stage of digestion channel inventory pressure and price adjustment. The core factors driving the upward trend in the sector mainly come from specific innovative products and policy support. Although the overall market is under obvious pressure, it has further promoted the increase in industry concentration, and leading companies have obtained relatively stable profit margins.

Looking ahead to 2026: The sector's investment strategy will focus on going overseas and innovating.

Going overseas will bring additional room for growth, and innovative products will support the profit margin level of enterprises during periods when traditional business prices fall. Overseas developed markets have obvious advantages in price stability, medical insurance payments, and patient penetration. In recent years, the overseas market growth rate of leading companies has clearly surpassed the domestic market, and enterprises with strong overseas products and channel capabilities are expected to achieve higher growth certainty and market valuation. At the same time, the future development focus of the domestic market is shifting to a high barrier circuit of innovation, and policies supporting innovative products such as artificial intelligence and brain-computer interfaces are constantly emerging, which will continue to catalyze the accelerated commercialization of new products.

Medical equipment: In the future, the main driving force will become domestic substitution, industrial upgrading, and normalized renewal, and the tender growth rate will stabilize.

Growth will depend more on technological breakthroughs by domestic manufacturers in high-end fields, progress in overseas markets, and continued expansion of primary markets such as county medical care. At the same time, pay attention to the channel inventory levels of leading companies. It is expected that the channel inventory adjustments of each enterprise will gradually come to an end from 2025Q4 to the first half of 2026.

High-value consumables: Volume procurement policies show trends such as 1) continuous expansion of varieties and 2) optimization of bidding mechanisms. In 2026, it is expected that the focus of the domestic market will remain on the policy side, paying attention to the details of relevant principles such as “anti-internal volume”. In terms of international expansion, the focus is on product development and sales progress in the European and US markets. Due to the previous layout of a large number of companies in overseas channel mergers and acquisitions and production bases, the overseas market growth of the sector is expected to accelerate in 2026.

Low-value consumables: In the context of drastic changes in the global trade environment, in order to avoid the high tariffs imposed on China by the US and other regions, and restore and expand competitiveness in the US market, various low-value consumables companies are speeding up the layout of overseas production bases. After leading companies start production at overseas bases in 2026, it is expected that they will quickly regain the US market share previously lost due to tariff policies and obtain a clear increase in profits.

In vitro diagnosis: The collection of major products has been implemented and gradually implemented. Although the overall market size has been reduced, leading domestic companies have continued to increase their market share and accelerate import substitution with their price and channel advantages. The price impact of collection and policy suppression of inspection volumes will gradually subside, and the overall inspection demand in the industry will resume growth due to the aging trend and the increase in the inspection penetration rate among residents.

Household medical devices: Internationalization has now become the core strategy of listed domestic household medical device companies. Leading companies mainly accelerate their business overseas through mergers and acquisitions and overseas product registration. In 2026, it is expected that some companies' overseas markets and innovative products will gradually enter the harvest period, and growth is expected to accelerate. It is recommended to focus on developments in core products such as respiratory therapy and blood sugar management.

Risk warning: exchange risk; risk of domestic and foreign policy volatility; risk of investment and financing cycle fluctuations; risk of mergers and acquisitions integration falling short of expectations