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    Is Analyst Upgrades And New Notes Funding Altering The Investment Case For Antero Midstream (AM)?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 23:23:03
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    • Earlier this week, Wells Fargo and other analysts raised their outlooks on Antero Midstream, while the company moved its funding mix toward newly issued Notes and away from legacy debt facilities.
    • This combination of stronger analyst sentiment and a simplified capital structure has sharpened investor focus on how Antero Midstream intends to finance future growth and distributions.
    • We’ll now examine how Antero Midstream’s shift toward Notes-based funding could influence its investment narrative around earnings stability and capital returns.

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    Antero Midstream Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Antero Midstream, you need to believe its fee based midstream model around Appalachia gas can keep generating steady cash flows to support its dividend and modest growth. The recent shift toward longer dated Notes and the cluster of analyst target hikes do not materially change the near term story, where the key upside remains volume growth from Antero Resources and the biggest risk is still concentration in one customer and region.

    The most relevant update here is Antero Midstream’s upsized US$600,000,000 private placement of 5.75% senior unsecured notes due 2034, alongside the move to terminate older debt facilities. That step fits directly into the current catalyst of improving financial flexibility and earnings visibility, but also highlights the balance sheet risk that comes with a high, dividend heavy payout model and meaningful leverage.

    Yet while the focus is on higher price targets and a cleaner capital structure, investors should also be aware of the risk that...

    Read the full narrative on Antero Midstream (it's free!)

    Antero Midstream's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $655.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $200 million earnings increase from $455.6 million today.

    Uncover how Antero Midstream's forecasts yield a $18.64 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate fair value for Antero Midstream anywhere between US$14.20 and above US$31,000, reflecting very different assumptions and methods. Against that backdrop, the company’s reliance on Appalachia volumes and Antero Resources as its anchor customer becomes an important lens for you to compare these views and consider how resilient future earnings might be.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Antero Midstream - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

    Build Your Own Antero Midstream Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.