Southern Copper (SCCO) Valuation Check After Itau BBA Downgrade to Underperform

Southern Copper (SCCO) just caught investors attention after Itau BBA cut the stock to Underperform from Market Perform, a shift that challenges this year strong rally and invites a closer look at expectations.

See our latest analysis for Southern Copper.

That downgrade comes after a powerful run, with the share price at $148.13 and a roughly 66 percent year to date share price return. The five year total shareholder return of about 196 percent shows that longer term momentum has been robust rather than fading.

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With Southern Copper now trading above both its analyst target and some estimates of intrinsic value, investors face a dilemma: is this resilient copper miner still mispriced, or is the market already baking in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.2% Overvalued

With Southern Copper closing at $148.13 against a most popular narrative fair value of $118.29, the story hinges on how long elevated profitability can last.

Expansion projects such as Tia Maria, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay are progressing, with expectations for additional production capacity, which could positively impact revenue and earnings starting in 2027 through 2030.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why a miner with moderate growth expectations still earns such a rich valuation playbook? The narrative leans on higher long term margins, disciplined capital returns, and a punchy future earnings multiple. Want to see how those moving parts combine into that fair value target and where the assumptions get stretched tight?

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that storyline depends on avoiding extended delays at Tia Maria and a deeper US China trade rift that could weaken copper demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative.

Build Your Own Southern Copper Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own numbers and scenarios, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Southern Copper research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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