Oshkosh (OSK): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Year of Share Price and Earnings Growth

Oshkosh (OSK) has quietly built a strong track record, with the stock up about 40% over the past year as steady revenue and earnings growth reshape how investors value this industrial name.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh.

That momentum has not come out of nowhere, with the recent pullback in the 1 day share price move sitting against a near 40% year to date share price return and a roughly 40% one year total shareholder return. This suggests investors are steadily repricing Oshkosh for more durable growth.

If Oshkosh has you rethinking industrials, it could be a good time to scan other aerospace and defense stocks that might be benefiting from similar demand and spending trends.

With earnings climbing faster than revenue and the share price still trading at a steep intrinsic discount, is Oshkosh quietly undervalued today, or is the market already factoring in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 14.8% Undervalued

With Oshkosh last closing at $130.43 against a narrative fair value near the mid $150s, the storyline implies meaningful upside if assumptions land.

Oshkosh's accelerating innovation in electric, hybrid, and autonomous vehicle technologies positions the company to win incremental business and command higher margins as customers shift toward sustainability and digital solutions.

Recent multi-year government contract wins (FMTV, FHTV, and the USPS NGDV program) provide improved pricing, recurring high-visibility revenue, and create a stable foundation for further earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady mid single digit growth, fatter margins, and a lower future earnings multiple still point to upside? The full narrative unpacks the math.

Result: Fair Value of $153.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, tariff pressure and heavy reliance on large government contracts could quickly compress margins and derail the earnings trajectory that underpins today’s upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this Oshkosh narrative.

Build Your Own Oshkosh Narrative

If the takeaway here does not quite line up with your own view or you prefer hands on research, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Oshkosh research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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