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    Does ODFL’s Sliding Volumes and ROIC Deterioration Change The Bull Case For Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 12:23:33
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    • In recent years, Old Dominion Freight Line has faced a persistent 3.2% average annual decline in units sold and a 5.8% drop in earnings per share, alongside a material deterioration in return on invested capital, pointing to mounting competitive and demand pressures.
    • This combination of shrinking volumes, faster‑falling earnings than revenue, and weaker ROIC suggests Old Dominion is finding it harder to convert its network investments into profitable growth.
    • We’ll now examine how Old Dominion’s falling units sold and earnings reshape its investment narrative and the outlook implied by analysts.

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    Old Dominion Freight Line Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Old Dominion Freight Line, you need to believe its premium less than truckload network and service quality can offset recent pressure on volumes, earnings and returns on invested capital. The latest data on falling units and EPS reinforces that the key short term catalyst remains a turn in freight demand, while the biggest near term risk is that weaker volumes keep eroding profitability. For now, the news appears to reinforce, rather than materially change, that risk balance.

    Against this backdrop, Old Dominion’s ongoing share repurchases under its up to US$3,000.0 million buyback program stand out. The company bought back around US$201.4 million of stock in Q1 2025, followed by US$214.2 million in Q2 and US$180.9 million in Q3, which supports earnings per share but sits in tension with the trend of declining units sold and lower ROIC.

    Yet behind Old Dominion’s strong brand and disciplined operations, investors should be aware of the risk that sustained volume weakness and higher overhead costs could...

    Read the full narrative on Old Dominion Freight Line (it's free!)

    Old Dominion Freight Line's narrative projects $6.7 billion revenue and $1.4 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Old Dominion Freight Line's forecasts yield a $155.92 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ODFL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ODFL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$114.85 to US$198.41 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. Against that spread, the recent declines in units sold, earnings per share and return on invested capital give you a concrete set of business pressures to weigh as you compare these different perspectives on Old Dominion’s prospects.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Old Dominion Freight Line - why the stock might be worth as much as 25% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Old Dominion Freight Line Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Old Dominion Freight Line research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Old Dominion Freight Line research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Old Dominion Freight Line's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.