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    How Elastic’s US$130 Million CISA SIEMaaS Deal Could Reshape Elastic (ESTC) Investors’ Thesis

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 09:31:22
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    • In December 2025, Elastic N.V. announced it would partner with the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and ECS to build a unified SIEM-as-a-Service platform for federal civilian agencies on its FedRAMP-certified Elastic Cloud, under a base-year US$26 million contract that could reach up to US$130 million by 2030.
    • This collaboration deepens Elastic's role in U.S. federal cybersecurity by standardizing large-scale threat detection and incident response across agencies on its Elasticsearch Platform.
    • We’ll now explore how this CISA partnership, anchored by a potentially multi-year, US$130 million SIEMaaS program, may influence Elastic’s investment narrative.

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    Elastic Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Elastic, I think you need to believe its search, observability, and security platform can stay differentiated even as search and SIEM tools become more commoditized and bundled into larger cloud suites. The new CISA SIEMaaS deal strengthens Elastic’s credibility in mission critical security and adds a visible, if still relatively small, potential revenue stream, but it does not, on its own, remove the near term risk from intensifying cloud and security competition.

    Among recent announcements, the five year collaboration with AWS on Elastic Cloud and AI integrations feels most connected to the CISA news, because both center on Elastic’s cloud delivered platform becoming embedded in large, complex environments. Together, they highlight how cloud partnerships and high profile security deployments could act as key catalysts for Elastic as it seeks to scale usage of its Elasticsearch Platform across both commercial and public sector workloads.

    Yet, despite these contracts and partnerships, investors still need to be aware of how competition from hyperscale cloud providers could...

    Read the full narrative on Elastic (it's free!)

    Elastic’s narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $50.5 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Elastic's forecasts yield a $104.54 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ESTC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ESTC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates cluster between US$89.66 and US$140.57, reflecting a wide span of individual expectations. Against that backdrop, competition from hyperscale cloud providers remains a central issue that could shape how Elastic’s performance ultimately compares with these community scenarios, so it is worth weighing several viewpoints before deciding what you think the stock is worth.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Elastic - why the stock might be worth as much as 83% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Elastic Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.