Assessing Blackbaud (BLKB) Valuation After a 15% Monthly Rebound but 17% Annual Share Price Decline

Blackbaud (BLKB) has quietly put up a mixed scorecard for shareholders, with the stock up about 15 % over the past month but still down roughly 17 % over the past year.

See our latest analysis for Blackbaud.

That sharp 30 day share price return of about 15 % looks more like a short term reset than a full trend change. This is especially the case with the year long total shareholder return still clearly negative and the longer term record only modestly positive.

If Blackbaud has you watching software names more closely, it could also be a good moment to see what else is gaining traction across high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares still below analyst targets and trading at a notable intrinsic discount despite solid multi year gains, is Blackbaud quietly undervalued today, or has the market already baked in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 15% Undervalued

With Blackbaud’s fair value pegged around 74.50 dollars versus a 63.36 dollar last close, the most followed narrative is leaning toward meaningful upside.

The shift toward cloud based SaaS subscription models and improvements in operational efficiency including automation and AI driven internal initiatives are lowering costs and improving gross and net margins, providing significant leverage to long term earnings growth. Heightened importance of data security and compliance is prompting organizations to seek robust, purpose built solutions, setting Blackbaud apart from legacy or less sophisticated providers. This is expected to boost customer retention, win rates, and recurring revenue predictability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, rising margins, and shrinking share count can still justify a richer future earnings multiple than today, yet stay below sector highs?

Result: Fair Value of $74.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying SaaS competition and slower nonprofit tech spending could squeeze pricing power and margins, which may undermine the optimistic AI and buyback driven earnings story.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackbaud narrative.

Build Your Own Blackbaud Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Blackbaud research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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