Counterpoint: Global generative AI consumption spending is expected to reach $699 billion in 2030

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the “Global AI Consumer Spending Forecast (2024-2030)” report recently released by Counterpoint Research, consumer spending in the field of generative AI is rapidly reshaping the global technology industry pattern. Global generative AI consumption spending is expected to grow from US$225 billion in 2023 to US$699 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%.

According to the report, whether it is AI software for consumers or the hardware equipment required for its operation, it will usher in rapid growth in the next few years.

In terms of segments, AI conversation platforms are the fastest growing sector, and personal assistant-based AI and content generation tools are also expected to expand significantly. By 2030, the number of monthly active users (MAUs) of global AI conversation platforms is expected to exceed 5 billion.

Global AI Consumption Spending

From a structural point of view, AI hardware will still account for the largest share of overall consumer spending. The core driving force behind this growth is the integration of AI functions in personal terminal devices. The report predicts that between 2023 and 2030, global generative AI smartphone shipments will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26%, and the corresponding revenue will grow at a CAGR of 16%.

At the same time, the AI software market for consumers has more prominent potential for growth. Its rapid expansion has mainly benefited from a significant increase in the number of users. The report predicts that the number of monthly active users of the AI conversation platform will increase by nearly 5 billion over the forecast period.

Research director Marc Einstein said, “AI hardware spending will remain strong in the next few years, but what really determines the success or failure of the next-generation AI ecosystem is the increase in software spending. Although we expect the AI software market to expand significantly in the next five years, it is inevitable that there will be winners and losers in the industry in the short term.”

The report also provides an in-depth analysis of the competitive landscape at the platform level. Although OpenAI is expected to maintain its leading position in user size, the monthly active user growth rate of Google and Microsoft is expected to be the most significant during the forecast period. Meanwhile, in addition to AI conversation platforms, the AI application market — including AI art generation tools, AI companion apps, and photo editing software — also has strong growth momentum.

Generative AI is rapidly evolving from a “high-end differentiated function” to a “standard for the mass market.” Although high-end smartphones will continue to be the main support for revenue until 2030, the increase in shipments is gradually being driven by mid-range models, showing a trend where AI capabilities are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, emerging forms such as laptops, XR devices, and AI native terminals are still relatively limited in scale, but they have become an important direction for the next stage of growth, which is expected to drive the evolution of the AI hardware ecosystem from smartphones as the core to a more diversified form.