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    What Does HMC Capital’s ASX 200 Exit Reveal About Its Long-Term Strategy (ASX:HMC)?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 05:31:24
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    • Earlier this week, HMC Capital was removed from the ASX 200 index, triggering mandated portfolio adjustments for index-tracking funds and benchmark-aware managers.
    • This index exclusion is drawing fresh attention to how passive selling and benchmark status can influence liquidity, ownership mix, and investor perceptions of HMC Capital.
    • We’ll now explore how HMC Capital’s removal from the ASX 200 index interacts with its longer-term investment narrative and growth plans.

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    HMC Capital Investment Narrative Recap

    To own HMC Capital, you need to believe its push into alternative assets can offset the lumpiness of performance fees and one off items, building a more recurring earnings base over time. The ASX 200 removal primarily affects short term trading flows and may not materially change the current key catalyst, which is execution on new verticals, or the main risk around higher fixed costs if asset and fee growth slow.

    In this context, the recent full year 2025 result, showing A$234.2 million in sales and A$147.3 million in net income, is a useful reference point for assessing whether HMC’s expanded platform is translating into sustainable earnings that can support its growth ambitions, particularly across digital infrastructure, private credit, and energy transition.

    But while index removal looks temporary, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on HMC Capital (it's free!)

    HMC Capital's narrative projects A$352.6 million revenue and A$189.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 13.5% yearly revenue growth and about A$42.1 million earnings increase from A$147.3 million.

    Uncover how HMC Capital's forecasts yield a A$5.06 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:HMC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:HMC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see HMC’s fair value between A$4.24 and A$7.66, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. You should weigh those views against the execution risk in HMC’s newer verticals, which could influence how quickly its platform scale translates into more stable, fee based earnings.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on HMC Capital - why the stock might be worth as much as 94% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own HMC Capital Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.