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    Reassessing The RealReal (REAL) valuation after Chanel authentication controversy and renewed scrutiny of its operations

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 05:28:26
    語音播報

    Chanel bag mix up puts RealReal back under the microscope

    A mislisted Chanel bag, sold on The RealReal (REAL) as a Marc Jacobs piece for just $137, has reignited questions around the reseller’s authentication process and what that might mean for the stock.

    The company canceled the bargain orders after identifying the error, but the episode is amplifying long running customer complaints and prompting investors to revisit how operational missteps and trust issues could affect margins, growth, and long term valuation.

    See our latest analysis for RealReal.

    Even with this latest misstep in the spotlight, investors have been leaning back in, with the share price at $16.24 and a strong year to date 64.99 percent share price return hinting that momentum is rebuilding, despite the long term 5 year total shareholder return still sitting in negative territory.

    If this Chanel mix up has you rethinking where growth and execution might both be improving, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential turnaround stories.

    With the shares now hovering just below analyst targets after a sharp rebound, the real question is whether RealReal’s recovery is underappreciated, or if markets have already priced in the next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 7.3% Overvalued

    With RealReal last closing at $16.24 against a narrative fair value of $15.13, the story leans cautious and frames upside as already stretched.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of $10.0 for RealReal based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what keeps this growth story alive despite years of losses and a rich future earnings multiple pencilled in? Explore the revenue ramp, margin flip, and share dilution built into this fair value view, and decide for yourself whether the expectations feel ambitious or achievable.

    Result: Fair Value of $15.13 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, slower than expected AI driven efficiency gains, or a prolonged decline in commission margins, could quickly challenge the cautiously optimistic growth narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this RealReal narrative.

    Build Your Own RealReal Narrative

    If this perspective does not fully resonate, or you prefer building conviction from your own work, you can craft a tailored RealReal story in just minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your RealReal research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for your next investing edge?

    Do not stop your research at one turnaround story. Use the Simply Wall Street screener to uncover fresh opportunities that could reshape your portfolio this year.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.