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    Assessing Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Valuation After FDA Breakthrough Status for Plozasiran and Redemplo Launch

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 04:53:23
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    Why Arrowhead’s latest FDA win matters for the stock

    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) just picked up FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia, while also launching Redemplo for a rare lipid disorder. This combination is a one two regulatory and commercial catalyst investors cannot ignore.

    See our latest analysis for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals.

    These catalysts land on top of a powerful run, with a 30 day share price return of 58.4 percent and year to date share price return of 256.8 percent. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of negative 9.5 percent shows how sharply sentiment has flipped in the near term.

    If Arrowhead’s surge has you rethinking your healthcare exposure, it is a good moment to see what else is moving across innovative healthcare stocks right now.

    With shares now trading above the average analyst target and a low value score, has Arrowhead’s breakthrough momentum already been fully discounted in the price, or is the market still underestimating its longer term growth runway?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 9.4% Overvalued

    With Arrowhead closing at $70.11 against a narrative fair value near $64.08, the story leans optimistic on long term earnings power and multiples.

    Progress in RNAi delivery technology (TRiM™ platform), pipeline breadth in both prevalent and rare/orphan indications, and first-mover potential in CNS and adipose tissue RNAi expand Arrowhead's competitive edge as advancements in genomics and precision medicine increase the feasibility and personalization of RNAi therapies, supporting stronger projected net margins and long-term earnings growth if adoption broadens.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a shrinking top line can still support an aggressive future earnings multiple and rich margin profile? Want to see the exact assumptions driving that leap? Dive into the narrative to unpack the revenue trajectory, margin reset, and valuation math behind this premium price tag.

    Result: Fair Value of $64.08 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, several things could still derail this premium narrative, notably disappointing plozasiran Phase 3 data or slower-than-expected Redemplo uptake in real-world practice.

    Find out about the key risks to this Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals narrative.

    Build Your Own Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Narrative

    If this view does not fully align with your own or you simply prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas before you move on?

    If you stop with Arrowhead, you will miss out on other powerful setups that match your style and help you build a sharper, conviction driven portfolio.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.