Tilray (NasdaqGS:TLRY) Valuation After Schedule III Shift and Tilray Medical USA Launch

Tilray Brands (NasdaqGS:TLRY) just tied its next chapter to a big policy shift, with President Trump moving marijuana to Schedule III and the company launching Tilray Medical USA to pursue U.S. medical cannabis opportunities.

See our latest analysis for Tilray Brands.

That policy pivot has not stopped volatility, with a 7 day share price return of minus 21.2 percent and year to date share price return of minus 30.5 percent. The 3 year total shareholder return of minus 60.7 percent shows longer term momentum has clearly been fading despite recent regulatory catalysts.

If this kind of regulatory shake up has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a smart moment to explore pharma stocks with solid dividends as potential steadier compounders alongside higher risk names like Tilray.

With shares down sharply despite a sizeable discount to analyst targets and fresh U.S. policy catalysts, investors now face a key question: is Tilray an underpriced way into rescheduled cannabis growth, or is the market already looking ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 37.2% Undervalued

With Tilray Brands closing at $10.15 against a narrative fair value of $16.17, the valuation case leans toward upside if the assumptions land.

Tilray's international cannabis business is achieving rapid organic growth, with European cannabis revenue up 112% YoY (excluding Australia) and significant share gains in Germany due to regulatory tailwinds, broader medical adoption, and expanding legalization, supporting a long runway for top-line revenue acceleration as global cannabis markets open.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, near flat long run margins, and a sky high future earnings multiple can still imply upside? The full narrative explains the math behind that gap.

Result: Fair Value of $16.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent U.S. regulatory delays, along with ongoing Canadian price compression, could undercut Tilray’s growth ambitions and force harsher cost cuts or dilution.

Find out about the key risks to this Tilray Brands narrative.

Build Your Own Tilray Brands Narrative

If you are skeptical of these assumptions or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Tilray Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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