AerCap Holdings (AER): Valuation Check After First Airbus A321neo Delivery to Thai Airways

AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) has just delivered the first of ten Airbus A321neo jets to Thai Airways, kicking off a multiyear delivery stream through 2028 that reinforces AerCap’s role as a key lessor partner.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

That steady operational progress is showing up in the market, with AerCap’s share price at $145.24 after a strong year to date and a robust one year total shareholder return that suggests momentum is still building rather than fading.

If this kind of aircraft leasing story has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and explore aerospace and defense stocks as potential next ideas.

Yet with earnings growth temporarily soft, a rich multiyear total return, and only a small gap to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: Is AerCap still undervalued, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2.7% Undervalued

With AerCap closing at $145.24 against a narrative fair value of $149.22, the implied upside is modest but still leans in investors' favor.

Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale-leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up, driving revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a shrinking profit base, shifting margins, and a richer future earnings multiple can still justify upside from here? The narrative’s detailed forecasts connect those moving parts into a single fair value number, but the real surprise is how much of the case hangs on just a few key assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $149.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a faster than expected ramp in aircraft deliveries or financial stress among key airline customers could quickly challenge today’s tight market narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a personalized narrative in minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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