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    Novavax (NVAX) Is Up 6.3% After Activist Sale Push and Sanofi-Focused Royalty Pivot - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 03:45:36
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    • In recent months, Novavax has been shifting from direct commercial vaccine sales toward a royalty- and milestone-focused partnership model with Sanofi, while contending with tighter FDA vaccine standards and a smaller COVID booster market.
    • At the same time, activist investor Shah Capital, which owns about 8.3% of Novavax, has publicly urged the board to pursue a sale, arguing the company’s value could be far above its roughly US$1.10 billion market capitalization.
    • We’ll now explore how Shah Capital’s push for a potential sale, alongside the Sanofi partnership shift, may reshape Novavax’s investment narrative.

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    Novavax Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Novavax today, you need to believe its pivot to a leaner, partnership-led model with Sanofi and Takeda can offset a shrinking COVID booster market and tighter FDA standards. The Shah Capital campaign for a potential sale adds headline interest but does not yet change the core near term catalyst, which is whether Sanofi can translate Nuvaxovid and future combo vaccines into consistent milestones and royalties. The biggest risk remains partner dependent revenue concentration.

    The recent completion of the U.S. and EU transfers of Nuvaxovid marketing authorization to Sanofi is central to this story, because it formally shifts commercial and regulatory control to a larger vaccine player while crystallizing milestone payments for Novavax. That move aligns directly with the company’s effort to reduce its own commercial footprint and rely more on partner driven royalty streams, which now sit at the heart of both its potential upside and its execution risk.

    Yet, for investors, the increasing reliance on partners to hit regulatory and commercial milestones is something you need to be acutely aware of, because...

    Read the full narrative on Novavax (it's free!)

    Novavax's narrative projects $348.5 million revenue and $55.9 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $13.11 fair value, a 89% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    NVAX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NVAX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Ten members of the Simply Wall St Community now value Novavax anywhere between about US$4.61 and US$100 per share, showing very different views on upside. Against that backdrop, the shift to Sanofi led commercialization and the dependence on future milestones may be a key factor shaping how you judge the company’s longer term resilience and earnings power.

    Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be worth 34% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Novavax Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.