Fangzheng Securities: Resonance of energy storage at home and abroad brings high demand, and PV reverses internal circulation to promote favorable supply changes

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that demand for installed energy storage continues to be released, and the scale of tenders has reached a record high. On the overseas side, US AIDC has spawned demand, European storage demand is growing rapidly, demand from emerging markets continues to grow, and exports of Chinese inverters to these regions are rising year by year. Prices in the main photovoltaic industry chain have bottomed out and rebounded under the “anti-domestic roll” policy and “no less than cost price sales” price regulations. BC and perovskite are leading the development of new technology. Furthermore, with the accelerated deployment of space data centers, space photovoltaics has broad prospects.

The main views of Fangzheng Securities are as follows:

Energy storage: The domestic business model is running smoothly, and the foreign boom is booming

Domestic: Local governments have intensively introduced energy storage capacity compensation policies, and the energy storage business model has been gradually improved. Demand for installed energy storage continues to be released, and the scale of tenders has reached a record high. From January to September 2025, the total installed capacity of new domestic energy storage systems was 81.96 GWh, an increase of 61.59% over the previous year. From January to October this year, the cumulative tender scale for energy storage systems and EPCs reached 364.19 GWh, an increase of 161% over the previous year, with independent energy storage accounting for 58%.

Overseas: US AIDC has spawned demand, and demand in Europe and emerging markets continues to grow. Data center power consumption in the US has risen sharply, and the compound annual growth rate of energy storage demand driven by AIDC is expected to reach 85% from 2025 to 2030. Demand for large storage in the European market is growing rapidly. It is expected that by 2029, the new installed capacity of energy storage will reach 118 GWh, and the share of large storage will increase to 69%; at the same time, the industrial and commercial storage market is expected to usher in volume, accounting for 17% in 2029, making it the second largest market segment. In emerging markets, due to the shortage of electricity supply and imperfect power structures, demand for energy storage in regions and countries such as India, Southeast Asia, and Africa is increasing, and exports of Chinese inverters to these regions are increasing year by year.

Photovoltaics: “reverse internal circulation” promotes supply and demand improvement, BC and perovskite lead the development of new technologies

Prices in the main photovoltaic industry chain have bottomed out and rebounded under the “anti-domestic roll” policy and “no less than cost price sales” price regulations. From the low price in early July to December 11, the cumulative increases of polycrystalline silicon dense materials, 182N silicon wafers, 182 Topcon cells, and TopCon modules reached 49%, 40%, 22%, and 2%, respectively.

BC batteries have the highest theoretical efficiency limit (29.10%) compared to Topcon and HJT. Currently, many leading companies have invested heavily and are expected to be mass-produced in 26 years. The scale of tenders for BC battery modules has risen markedly. Since 2024, companies such as Huaneng and China Huadian have successively released BC procurement sections. A number of leading photovoltaic module companies have actively laid out production capacity expansion and stable production. It is expected that by the end of '25, domestic BC battery module production capacity will exceed 70GW, and the market share will continue to increase.

Continued breakthroughs have been made in perovskite solar cell technology, and Longji Green Energy has set and maintained a world record of 34.85% efficiency for crystalline silicon-perovskite laminated batteries. Currently, industrialization is at a critical stage in the transition from “technical verification” to “initial mass production.” As of 2025, the industry has built 3 GW-class mass production lines. Cross-border companies such as Ningde Times are also preparing GW-class production lines, and manufacturers such as Renshuo Solar are expected to follow suit in 2026.

With the accelerated deployment of space data centers, space photovoltaics has broad prospects. Currently, the mainstream technology solution is gallium arsenide batteries, but high cost (accounting for 15-20% of satellite manufacturing costs) and rigid substrates limit their large-scale application. In the future, P-type HJT batteries and perovskite batteries are expected to become mainstream solutions.

Risk warning: industry competition intensifies, technology research and development falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.