How New Autogrill And Capital Bank Wins At Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Have Changed Its Investment Story

• In December 2025, Diebold Nixdorf announced an expanded partnership with Autogrill in Italy and a new VCP-Pro 7 deployment with Capital Bank in Jordan, adding managed services, flexible retail technology and Windows 11-powered ATMs to its multivendor solutions footprint.
• These wins highlight Diebold Nixdorf’s push deeper into higher-margin software and managed services, broadening its role as a single technology partner across banking and travel-focused retail.
• We’ll now examine how Diebold Nixdorf’s expanded Autogrill managed services deal could influence its investment narrative built around recurring revenue growth.

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Diebold Nixdorf Investment Narrative Recap

To own Diebold Nixdorf, you need to believe its shift from hardware to higher-margin software and managed services can offset long-term pressure on ATM and POS demand, while ongoing restructuring supports earnings and cash flow. The latest Autogrill and Capital Bank wins modestly reinforce the near term catalyst of recurring service growth, but the biggest risk remains execution on this transition in a market where digital and contactless payments keep chipping away at traditional cash infrastructure.

Among the recent announcements, the expanded Autogrill agreement in Italy looks especially relevant, because it makes Diebold Nixdorf the single IT partner across a multivendor retail estate. That kind of standardized, scalable managed services footprint directly connects to the company’s push for more recurring revenue and higher service margins, but also underscores how dependent the story still is on winning and retaining large, complex institutional contracts over time.

Yet behind these encouraging service wins, investors should also be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Diebold Nixdorf (it's free!)

Diebold Nixdorf’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $312.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and a $325.6 million earnings increase from -$12.9 million today.

Uncover how Diebold Nixdorf's forecasts yield a $79.00 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from US$79 to about US$117 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set these opinions against the execution risk in Diebold Nixdorf’s software and services transition, it underlines why many participants look closely at how sustainable these new managed services wins might be for future performance.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Diebold Nixdorf - why the stock might be worth as much as 70% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Diebold Nixdorf Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Diebold Nixdorf research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Diebold Nixdorf research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Diebold Nixdorf's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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