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Galaxy Securities pointed out that due to the economic growth rate exceeding expectations, CME observation data shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 has subsided compared to the previous one. After the data was released, Hassett, a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman, said that the basis for growth still comes from falling prices, income growth, and improved sentiment, and clearly stated that if the GDP growth rate remains around 4%, new jobs are expected to return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 people per month. At the same time, he also bluntly stated that the Federal Reserve clearly lags behind the situation on interest rate cuts. We believe that economic growth in the third quarter mainly reflected the decline in inventory and trade disturbances, which was not enough to change the trend of weakening employment margins; against the backdrop of employment becoming the focus of policy trade-offs and the gradual implementation of the Federal Reserve Chairman's candidate, there is still room for about 3 interest rate cuts in 2026.

智通財經·12/25/2025 00:25:02
語音播報
Galaxy Securities pointed out that due to the economic growth rate exceeding expectations, CME observation data shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 has subsided compared to the previous one. After the data was released, Hassett, a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman, said that the basis for growth still comes from falling prices, income growth, and improved sentiment, and clearly stated that if the GDP growth rate remains around 4%, new jobs are expected to return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 people per month. At the same time, he also bluntly stated that the Federal Reserve clearly lags behind the situation on interest rate cuts. We believe that economic growth in the third quarter mainly reflected the decline in inventory and trade disturbances, which was not enough to change the trend of weakening employment margins; against the backdrop of employment becoming the focus of policy trade-offs and the gradual implementation of the Federal Reserve Chairman's candidate, there is still room for about 3 interest rate cuts in 2026.